La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Sittard v Feyenoord

Inicio: 2026-05-03 12:30 UTC

Final: Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Predicción 19.39%5.16momio equitativo
EV +1.79%
Ventaja +0.341%
Kelly +0.421%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.05%19.40%19.50%20.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.844.905.2523.26%20.68%20.41%19.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Feyenoord (Visitante)

Predicción 58.66%1.70momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -3.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.76%58.59%58.61%59.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.591.601.6666.67%63.05%62.50%60.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.96%4.55momio equitativo
EV +1.87%
Ventaja +0.403%
Kelly +0.514%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.85%22.00%21.89%24.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.204.204.6428.57%23.80%23.81%21.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV -10.04%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.63%E -1.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.85%EV +1.87%E +0.403%K +0.514%G +0.010%3.3%2026-05-03 12:26
Unibet (NL)5.25I 19.05%NM 18.49%EV +1.79%E +0.341%K +0.421%G +0.008%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.93%EV -4.98%E -3.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -1.20%E -0.267%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 12:15
Svenska Spel5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV +0.818%E +0.157%K +0.195%G +0.002%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.39%EV -4.39%E -2.69%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -3.40%E -0.772%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 12:15
ATG (SE)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV +0.818%E +0.157%K +0.195%G +0.002%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.39%EV -4.39%E -2.69%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -3.40%E -0.772%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 12:16
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -12.75%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.47%EV -7.32%E -4.63%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -3.40%E -0.772%K -0.999%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 12:05
Unibet (SE)5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -1.12%E -0.220%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.47%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.87%EV -4.50%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 12:15
Unibet (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -4.50%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 12:06
Pinnacle5.11I 19.57%NM 18.88%EV -0.927%E -0.181%K -0.225%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.83%EV -3.80%E -2.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.28%EV -4.93%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 12:25
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.04%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -4.93%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 12:24
BetMGM4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -7.91%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -4.98%E -3.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -4.93%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 12:15
Coral4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.57%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV -4.93%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 12:16
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.80%EV -4.98%E -3.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 12:10
DraftKings4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 12:15
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -6.74%E -4.24%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 12:05
Unibet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -1.12%E -0.220%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.62%EV -7.32%E -4.63%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 12:16
Codere (IT)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.49%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 12:06
Casumo5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 12:15
betPARX5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 12:15
Tipico (DE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 12:25
BetRivers5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -8.50%E -5.45%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -5.59%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 12:15
NordicBet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.42%EV -4.98%E -3.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 12:00
Betsson4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.42%EV -4.98%E -3.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 12:26
PointsBet (AU)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -7.91%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 12:10
Marathon Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.02%EV -7.32%E -4.63%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 12:06
Grosvenor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -8.50%E -5.45%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 12:15
TABtouch5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -8.50%E -5.45%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 12:15
Betclic (FR)4.65I 21.51%NM 19.56%EV -9.85%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.05%EV -9.67%E -6.28%K -17.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.40%EV -6.69%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 12:08
BetOnline.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -4.39%E -2.69%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 12:06
LowVig.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -4.39%E -2.69%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 12:06
BetUS4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04%EV -4.03%E -0.814%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.53%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 12:15
BetAnything4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04%EV -4.03%E -0.814%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.53%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 12:15
Everygame5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 12:05
Bovada4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -4.03%E -0.814%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.68%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 12:25
Betr (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.94%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.69%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 12:15
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.75%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -5.56%E -3.45%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 12:05
LeoVegas4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -9.67%E -6.28%K -17.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -9.67%E -6.28%K -17.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:15
betfred_uk4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:09
Virgin Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.65%EV -10.26%E -6.70%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 12:15
PMU (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.65%EV -10.26%E -6.70%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 12:15
LiveScore Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 18.62%EV -5.00%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.65%EV -10.26%E -6.70%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 12:15
Winamax (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -16.63%E -3.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.98%EV -9.67%E -6.28%K -17.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -7.79%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 12:06
Unibet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -10.26%E -6.70%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.67%EV -8.89%E -2.14%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 12:05
FanDuel5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV +0.818%E +0.157%K +0.195%G +0.002%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.05%EV -6.74%E -4.24%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -9.98%E -2.44%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 12:20
Bet Right4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -7.91%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.21%EV -7.32%E -4.63%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.98%E -2.44%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 12:10
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.62%EV -12.75%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.85%EV -12.01%E -8.01%K -24.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -9.98%E -2.44%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 12:10
SportsBet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.06%E -0.612%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 12:20
PlayUp4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -5.97%E -1.23%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.81%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 12:25
888sport4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:25
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:26
888sport (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:26
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.15%E -3.84%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 12:26
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -12.75%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -9.08%E -5.86%K -16.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -12.18%E -3.04%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 12:04
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.91%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -7.91%E -5.04%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -16.57%E -4.36%K -5.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 12:20
Sky Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -10.81%E -2.35%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.13%EV -9.08%E -5.86%K -16.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -17.67%E -4.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -12.75%E -2.83%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -12.01%E -8.01%K -24.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -23.16%E -6.62%K -9.26%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-03 12:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.99%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.99%4.76I 21.01%NM 21.01%-0.0%2026-05-03 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-05-03 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%0.6%2026-05-03 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.21%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.1%2026-05-03 12:25
Matchbook5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.36%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-05-03 12:25
Smarkets5.50I 18.18%NM 17.88%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%1.7%2026-05-03 12:20