Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle v Feyenoord

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Zwolle 0–2 Feyenoord

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle (Local)

Prediction 24.21%4.13fair odd
EV -0.738%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.238%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.81%24.18%24.18%25.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.834.1028.57%26.12%26.11%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Feyenoord (Visit)

Prediction 53.08%1.88fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%53.12%53.10%54.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.751.751.8159.88%57.25%57.14%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.275%
Kelly -0.357%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.71%22.72%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.054.104.3529.41%24.69%24.39%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Zwolle (Local): 24.21%; Feyenoord (Visit): 53.08%; Draw: 22.71%. For FC Zwolle (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.738%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -0.738%E -0.180%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.93%E -2.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.40%EV -1.20%E -0.275%K -0.357%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 06:40
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV -0.738%E -0.180%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -3.93%E -2.17%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.40%EV -1.20%E -0.275%K -0.357%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 06:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%EV -0.738%E -0.180%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.11%EV -4.99%E -2.79%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV -1.20%E -0.275%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 06:41
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -0.738%E -0.180%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -8.71%E -5.06%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 06:35
Pinnacle🎯4.07I 24.57%NM 23.56%EV -1.46%E -0.360%K -0.477%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.56%EV -4.99%E -2.79%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.88%EV -4.83%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 08:16
1xBet🎯4.01I 24.94%NM 23.92%EV -2.92%E -0.728%K -0.969%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -4.46%E -2.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.79%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-17 06:35
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -3.16%E -0.790%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.93%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -2.33%E -0.542%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 15:44
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -3.16%E -0.790%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 15:45
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.16%E -0.790%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -7.65%E -4.40%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 15:45
DraftKings🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.49%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 22:26
LowVig.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -4.99%E -2.79%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -4.99%E -2.79%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:40
Bovada🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -6.59%E -3.74%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:03
BetUS🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -6.59%E -3.74%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
BetAnything🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -6.59%E -3.74%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:00
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -4.46%E -2.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 06:30
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -4.46%E -2.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 06:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -5.52%E -3.10%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:40
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:40
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:40
Everygame🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 06:30
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -4.46%E -2.48%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -2.33%E -0.542%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 06:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.02%EV -5.52%E -3.10%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 08:05
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -12.55%E -3.26%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 06:30
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.00%EV -7.65%E -4.40%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 24.18%EV -7.28%E -1.90%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -7.65%E -4.40%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:04
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 06:35
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 06:30
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.12%EV -9.24%E -5.40%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -2.33%E -0.542%K -0.706%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 06:34
Betr (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -5.52%E -3.10%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 06:35
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 04:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -6.06%E -3.42%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 06:35
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.18%E -4.73%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 06:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.24%EV -9.24%E -5.40%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.48%EV -8.01%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 08:05
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -8.71%E -5.06%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -10.28%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:41
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:40
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 06:40
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.79%EV -9.24%E -5.40%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 06:40
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.79%EV -9.24%E -5.40%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 06:40
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -8.18%E -4.73%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.15%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-17 06:34
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 06:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 06:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 06:41
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 06:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.20%EV -11.36%E -6.80%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.78%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.65%E -4.40%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.60%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 08:05
Bet Right🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -7.12%E -4.07%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 06:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.72%EV -10.83%E -6.45%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -12.55%E -3.26%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-17 06:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -8.71%E -5.06%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -6.87%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 08:05
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -11.36%E -6.80%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.69%E -3.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-16 22:20
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -15.26%E -4.36%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.04%EV -9.77%E -5.75%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -11.42%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-17 06:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.24%EV -15.26%E -4.36%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 50.80%EV -11.36%E -6.80%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.95%EV -22.77%E -6.70%K -9.49%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-17 06:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook4.20I 23.81%NM 23.61%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.32%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%0.8%2026-05-17 08:00
Smarkets4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%1.4%2026-05-17 08:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%1.4%2026-05-17 08:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%1.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Kalshi4.17I 23.98%NM 23.53%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-05-17 01:40