La escuela de los momios

FC Zwolle v Excelsior

Inicio: 2026-04-12 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Zwolle 2–2 Excelsior

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Zwolle (Local)

Predicción 42.78%2.34momio equitativo
EV -2.47%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.57%42.77%42.71%46.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.832.162.202.2854.64%46.34%45.45%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Excelsior (Visitante)

Predicción 31.15%3.21momio equitativo
EV -0.317%
Ventaja -0.099%
Kelly -0.144%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.41%31.15%31.20%32.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.003.003.2036.36%33.29%33.33%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.07%3.84momio equitativo
EV -0.926%
Ventaja -0.244%
Kelly -0.331%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.88%26.07%26.10%28.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.573.603.8033.33%28.04%27.78%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -2.47%E -1.08%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.65%EV -2.90%E -1.28%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.83%EV -2.19%E -0.696%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -3.75%E -1.67%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -8.10%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.23%E -0.595%K -0.811%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 07:25
1xBet2.24I 44.64%NM 42.77%EV -4.18%E -1.87%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.91%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.32%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.79%EV -4.61%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.51%EV -0.317%E -0.099%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.70%EV -0.926%E -0.244%K -0.331%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-12 09:09
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 43.64%EV -4.61%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%EV -0.317%E -0.099%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.95%EV -2.23%E -0.595%K -0.811%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 12:00
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.64%EV -4.61%E -2.07%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%EV -0.317%E -0.099%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.95%EV -2.23%E -0.595%K -0.811%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 10:56
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 05:00
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 11:00
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 10:59
Codere (IT)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 02:54
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 02:54
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 11:00
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 11:00
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 12:00
BetAnything2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 12:00
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 11:29
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 11:30
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 07:25
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 07:25
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 12:01
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 07:25
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 11:00
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 12:00
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 12:00
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 12:01
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.68%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.36%E -3.34%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 43.58%EV -7.17%E -3.31%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 12:00
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -7.17%E -3.31%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.86%EV -5.92%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.18%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 10:19
Unibet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%EV -7.60%E -3.52%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.03%E -3.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 12:00
betPARX2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.03%E -3.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 12:00
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.03%E -3.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 11:00
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -8.03%E -3.73%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 12:00
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -8.46%E -3.95%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 12:01
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -9.31%E -4.39%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 09:10
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -9.31%E -4.39%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 09:10
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.65%EV -9.31%E -4.39%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.50%EV -5.36%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 02:54
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 05:25
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.53%E -0.955%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 05:28
LeoVegas (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:00
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -7.44%E -2.10%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -8.10%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 02:54
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.25%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -11.22%E -3.94%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -4.84%E -1.33%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 02:54
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.17%E -4.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 10:19
PMU (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -11.02%E -5.30%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -11.02%E -5.30%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:01
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -11.02%E -5.30%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:00
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -11.45%E -5.53%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -11.22%E -3.94%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.66%E -3.78%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 11:00
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -12.31%E -6.00%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -6.14%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 05:23
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -12.31%E -6.00%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.29%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-12 05:24
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -12.31%E -6.00%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -14.33%E -5.21%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -8.75%E -2.50%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-12 02:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -14.45%E -7.22%K -14.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -10.29%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -21.78%E -7.26%K -10.89%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-12 05:24
Parions Sport (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.44%EV -21.72%E -11.87%K -26.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.15%EV -15.27%E -4.70%K -6.78%G +0.000%17.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%0.9%2026-04-12 12:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.30%1.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 42.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-04-12 12:01
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.1%2026-04-12 10:20