Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Zwolle 0–2 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle (Local)

Prediction 15.44%6.48fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +0.733%
Kelly +0.859%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.94%15.57%15.30%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.506.096.006.8022.22%16.42%16.67%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 64.24%1.56fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -7.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.15%64.06%64.34%65.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.451.5072.46%68.94%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.32%4.92fair odd
EV -0.433%
Edge -0.088%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.39%20.37%20.35%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.604.9023.81%21.92%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Zwolle (Local): 15.44%; Ajax (Visit): 64.24%; Draw: 20.32%. For FC Zwolle (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.48. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 14.20%EV +4.98%E +0.733%K +0.859%G +0.043%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.25%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.55%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 12:10
BetOnline.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 14.20%EV +4.98%E +0.733%K +0.859%G +0.043%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.25%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.55%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 12:10
BetUS🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 14.20%EV +4.98%E +0.733%K +0.859%G +0.043%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.25%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.55%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 12:09
BetAnything🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 14.20%EV +4.98%E +0.733%K +0.859%G +0.043%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.25%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.55%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.48%EV +4.21%E +0.624%K +0.732%G +0.031%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.58%EV -4.28%E -2.87%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.94%EV -0.433%E -0.088%K -0.111%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.48%EV +4.21%E +0.624%K +0.732%G +0.031%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.58%EV -4.28%E -2.87%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.94%EV -0.433%E -0.088%K -0.111%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.48%EV +4.21%E +0.624%K +0.732%G +0.031%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.58%EV -4.28%E -2.87%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.94%EV -0.433%E -0.088%K -0.111%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-09 12:20
1xBet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +4.21%E +0.624%K +0.732%G +0.031%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.65%EV -3.64%E -2.43%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.99%EV -6.12%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-09 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.94%EV +3.44%E +0.513%K +0.603%G +0.021%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -8.78%E -6.18%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 12:20
Bet Victor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +0.351%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.57%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -2.46%E -0.513%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:45
betano_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV +0.351%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.57%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.81%EV -2.46%E -0.513%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:44
Fanatics🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +0.351%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -3.48%E -0.733%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:24
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +0.351%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 12:15
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV +0.351%E +0.054%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -8.78%E -6.18%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 12:14
Pinnacle🎯6.42I 15.58%NM 14.90%EV -0.884%E -0.138%K -0.163%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.08%EV -5.56%E -3.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.02%EV -2.87%E -0.601%K -0.760%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 12:20
Betsson🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV -1.19%E -0.186%K -0.221%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.79%EV -4.28%E -2.87%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -9.58%E -2.15%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:25
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV -1.19%E -0.186%K -0.221%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.79%EV -4.28%E -2.87%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -9.58%E -2.15%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 11:49
Grosvenor🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.76%EV -1.19%E -0.186%K -0.221%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 12:20
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -3.51%E -0.561%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.77%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.20%EV -5.51%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 12:24
Unibet (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.51%E -0.561%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:20
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.51%E -0.561%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:20
betPARX🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -3.51%E -0.561%K -0.668%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:25
Marathon Bet🎯6.15I 16.26%NM 15.17%EV -5.05%E -0.822%K -0.981%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.77%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -5.51%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:24
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -5.82%E -0.955%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 12:20
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -2.46%E -0.513%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 11:45
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -2.46%E -0.513%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -3.48%E -0.733%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:10
Coolbet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -3.48%E -0.733%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.04%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.19%EV -5.56%E -3.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 12:10
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 12:24
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 12:25
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-09 12:25
BetRivers🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.59%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 12:20
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -10.06%E -7.19%K -25.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -10.06%E -7.19%K -25.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.02%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -7.37%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.08%EV -11.35%E -8.22%K -29.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 12:24
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.78%E -6.18%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.59%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.81%EV -9.42%E -6.68%K -22.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.68%EV -11.61%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.81%EV -9.42%E -6.68%K -22.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.68%EV -11.61%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.51%EV -10.46%E -1.80%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.81%EV -9.42%E -6.68%K -22.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.68%EV -11.61%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -2.46%E -0.513%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 11:45
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -3.64%E -2.43%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 05:00
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.20%EV -5.56%E -3.79%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 10:00
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.74%EV -4.92%E -3.33%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -10.59%E -2.41%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:25
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.73%EV -10.06%E -7.19%K -25.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -12.62%E -2.94%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 12:20
Sky Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -11.23%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -10.06%E -7.19%K -25.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -14.66%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 11:55
Betclic (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -13.54%E -2.42%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.97%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -11.61%E -2.67%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 12:07
Unibet (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.09%EV -13.54%E -2.42%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.89%EV -9.42%E -6.68%K -22.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 12:09
Bet Right🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -15.09%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -6.85%E -4.72%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 10:00
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -15.09%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.49%E -5.20%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -8.56%E -1.90%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 10:00
Winamax (DE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -16.63%E -3.08%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.73%EV -8.13%E -5.69%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -4.50%E -0.957%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 12:10
Winamax (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.99%EV -18.18%E -3.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.43%EV -8.78%E -6.18%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -6.53%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 12:10
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -30.53%E -6.78%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -3.64%E -2.43%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -14.66%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 08:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.73%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.39%0.1%2026-08-09 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.85%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.71%0.6%2026-08-09 12:25
Matchbook7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.85%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.71%0.6%2026-08-09 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%0.9%2026-08-09 12:20
Smarkets7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64%0.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 13.73%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%2.0%2026-08-09 12:20

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