Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 59.58%1.68fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.665%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%59.52%59.56%62.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.561.6667.57%64.26%64.10%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 17.66%5.66fair odd
EV +10.40%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.206%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.52%17.72%17.63%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.385.506.2522.73%18.59%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.537%
Kelly +0.691%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.16%22.77%22.81%24.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.064.104.5028.57%24.62%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Utrecht (Local): 59.58%; SC Telstar (Visit): 17.66%; Draw: 22.76%. For SC Telstar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.66. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.18%EV -7.06%E -4.53%K -12.61%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.52%EV +10.40%E +1.66%K +1.98%G +0.206%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%EV -0.997%E -0.229%K -0.298%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.63%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.86%EV +7.75%E +1.27%K +1.52%G +0.118%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.63%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.86%EV +7.75%E +1.27%K +1.52%G +0.118%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.45%EV -7.66%E -4.94%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV +5.99%E +0.998%K +1.20%G +0.072%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 13:35
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV +5.99%E +0.998%K +1.20%G +0.072%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 13:34
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.47%EV -3.49%E -2.15%K -5.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.33%EV +4.22%E +0.715%K +0.861%G +0.036%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.21%EV -9.42%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 14:15
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.53%EV -1.10%E -0.665%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.50%EV +4.04%E +0.686%K +0.827%G +0.033%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.98%EV -11.47%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-11 14:19
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -8.85%E -5.78%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV +2.45%E +0.423%K +0.511%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 13:45
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -8.85%E -5.78%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.20%EV +2.45%E +0.423%K +0.511%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 13:45
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -10.04%E -6.65%K -19.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV +2.45%E +0.423%K +0.511%G +0.013%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:35
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -10.04%E -6.65%K -19.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV +2.45%E +0.423%K +0.511%G +0.013%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:34
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -10.04%E -6.65%K -19.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV +2.45%E +0.423%K +0.511%G +0.013%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:35
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.49%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.26%EV -12.38%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -10.64%E -7.09%K -21.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 13:45
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -10.64%E -7.09%K -21.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -11.83%E -7.99%K -24.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -11.83%E -7.99%K -24.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -11.83%E -7.99%K -24.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.331%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.40%EV -9.44%E -6.21%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV +0.687%E +0.121%K +0.146%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 14:14
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.93%EV -5.27%E -3.32%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -1.08%E -0.193%K -0.235%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -12.38%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:24
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.93%EV -5.27%E -3.32%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -1.08%E -0.193%K -0.235%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -12.38%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:25
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.58%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -1.08%E -0.193%K -0.235%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%EV -5.87%E -3.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -5.27%E -3.32%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 14:04
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -5.27%E -3.32%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -7.66%E -4.94%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 14:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -5.87%E -3.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 14:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -5.87%E -3.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -2.85%E -0.517%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 14:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.87%E -3.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.10%EV -3.73%E -0.684%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 14:04
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.75%EV -1.70%E -1.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.81%EV -5.50%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 14:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.75%EV -1.70%E -1.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.81%EV -5.50%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 14:04
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV +2.42%E +0.537%K +0.691%G +0.017%5.0%2026-04-11 14:03
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -4.08%E -2.54%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 12:35
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -4.08%E -2.54%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -4.08%E -2.54%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.24%EV -7.66%E -4.94%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -3.27%E -0.770%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.66%E -4.94%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 13:44
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -7.06%E -4.53%K -12.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.26%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.41%EV -10.04%E -6.65%K -19.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV -9.91%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -5.27%E -3.32%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.647%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.55%EV -5.87%E -3.71%K -10.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -0.997%E -0.229%K -0.298%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 14:05
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 14:14
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.80%EV -2.89%E -1.77%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -14.65%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 14:04
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.85%E -5.78%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 14:19
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.85%E -5.78%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 14:20
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.85%E -5.78%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 14:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.15%EV -11.83%E -7.99%K -24.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.51%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.34%EV -14.65%E -3.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-11 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -10.64%E -7.09%K -21.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -16.09%E -3.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 14:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -18.74%E -4.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 14:19
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -18.74%E -4.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -18.74%E -4.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 14:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -18.74%E -4.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -18.74%E -4.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.647%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.76%EV -10.64%E -7.09%K -21.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.92%EV -20.51%E -4.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.32%EV -20.34%E -5.81%K -8.14%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-11 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -10.64%E -7.09%K -21.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -22.28%E -5.06%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -6.69%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-11 14:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.90%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-11 14:10
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%1.0%2026-04-11 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.58%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-04-11 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.58%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-04-11 14:25
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 60.58%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-04-11 14:25
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 60.73%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-04-11 14:15