Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV -0.092%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.061%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.49%39.78%39.75%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.352.372.5148.78%42.63%42.19%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Go Ahead Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 32.96%3.03fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.371%
Kelly -0.556%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.74%32.95%33.02%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.803.0038.46%35.53%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.754%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.30%27.28%27.22%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.403.6033.33%29.40%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 39.80%; Go Ahead Eagles (Visit): 32.96%; Draw: 27.23%. For Excelsior (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.512. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.510, with an expected value of -0.092%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.64%EV -0.092%E -0.037%K -0.061%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.27%EV -6.72%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.09%EV -2.50%E -0.700%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.92%EV -1.29%E -0.519%K -0.869%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.51%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 18:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.92%EV -1.29%E -0.519%K -0.869%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.51%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 18:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.92%EV -1.29%E -0.519%K -0.869%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.51%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 18:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.11%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 18:24
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 18:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.07%EV -4.07%E -1.69%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 18:04
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.32%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.58%EV -2.10%E -0.707%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.10%EV -2.78%E -0.778%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.23%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.18%EV -1.11%E -0.371%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.23%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.18%EV -1.11%E -0.371%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 18:34
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 09:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:04
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:24
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:24
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -4.47%E -1.86%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:24
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.22%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.754%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -3.32%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 18:49
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.10%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -3.32%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 18:49
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.76%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.20%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 18:10
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:24
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:25
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:25
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 18:04
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-01 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-01 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-01 18:54
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.95%EV -5.66%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -5.40%E -1.88%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.63%EV -5.66%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -2.76%E -0.936%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 18:09
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -4.41%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.68%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 18:54
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -4.41%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 18:18
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:09
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -6.46%E -2.75%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 18:25
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.62%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:47
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.62%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:49
BetAnything🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.15%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.62%EV -5.07%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.86%E -2.93%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -6.06%E -2.12%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.93%EV -7.26%E -3.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-01 18:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.93%EV -7.26%E -3.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-01 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -2.76%E -0.936%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.41%E -1.52%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 18:09
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.36%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.34%EV -5.40%E -1.88%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 18:54
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-01 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.65%E -4.77%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 18:05
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -7.70%E -2.75%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-01 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -9.35%E -3.40%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-01 18:50
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-01 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.28%EV -11.64%E -5.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.87%EV -10.34%E -3.80%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.85%EV -9.31%E -2.80%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-01 18:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.00%E -4.07%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-01 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.80%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.67%EV -14.30%E -5.50%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.40%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-01 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.57%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.23%EV -13.64%E -5.21%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.20%EV -12.85%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-01 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -16.41%E -7.82%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -13.31%E -5.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -18.30%E -6.10%K -9.15%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-01 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.82%EV -18.40%E -8.98%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.19%EV -14.30%E -5.50%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.99%EV -15.58%E -5.02%K -7.42%G +0.000%19.5%2026-03-01 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-03-01 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-03-01 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-03-01 18:54
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-03-01 18:50
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.66%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.1%2026-03-01 18:49