Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente Enschede

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:45 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 2–2 FC Twente Enschede

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Prediction 41.55%2.41fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.72%41.60%41.55%43.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.37%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Twente Enschede (Visit)

Prediction 33.53%2.98fair odd
EV -0.417%
Edge -0.141%
Kelly -0.212%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%33.52%33.58%34.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.762.752.9740.00%36.19%36.36%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.525%
Kelly +0.695%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.88%24.87%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.723.734.1032.26%26.88%26.81%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 41.55%; FC Twente Enschede (Visit): 33.53%; Draw: 24.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.69%EV -7.75%E -3.49%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.66%EV -0.417%E -0.141%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.695%G +0.015%3.1%2026-05-03 14:40
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.52%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -0.337%E -0.084%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 14:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -0.337%E -0.084%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 14:23
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.02%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.72%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 14:31
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 14:31
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 14:31
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -4.07%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.22%EV -2.35%E -0.998%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -2.43%E -0.835%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89%EV -3.18%E -1.36%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 14:31
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.75%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 14:31
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.73%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:00
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:31
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:31
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:01
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:30
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:31
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:35
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:40
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 14:35
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -12.82%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.30%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.31%EV -8.46%E -3.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.38%EV -7.06%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:26
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetAnything🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -5.45%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -5.45%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.35%EV -8.13%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:40
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.76%E -0.953%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:20
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:31
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:21
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.34%EV -12.82%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:40
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:31
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:31
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.08%EV -5.67%E -2.50%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -9.31%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:38
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -11.55%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.95%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.24%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -11.55%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-03 14:35
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -15.29%E -4.50%K -6.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.72%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.37%EV -16.18%E -6.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.91%EV -22.76%E -7.34%K -10.84%G +0.000%19.9%2026-05-03 14:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.24%0.3%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-05-03 14:35
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%1.6%2026-05-03 14:41
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 41.32%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%3.9%2026-05-03 14:20