La escuela de los momios

AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente Enschede

Inicio: 2026-05-03 14:45 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 2–2 FC Twente Enschede

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 41.55%2.41momio equitativo
EV -1.10%
Ventaja -0.462%
Kelly -0.797%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.72%41.60%41.55%43.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.37%44.44%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Twente Enschede (Visitante)

Predicción 33.53%2.98momio equitativo
EV -0.417%
Ventaja -0.141%
Kelly -0.212%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.24%33.52%33.58%34.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.762.752.9740.00%36.19%36.36%33.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.92%4.01momio equitativo
EV +2.15%
Ventaja +0.525%
Kelly +0.695%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.65%24.88%24.87%26.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.723.734.1032.26%26.88%26.81%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.69%EV -7.75%E -3.49%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.66%EV -0.417%E -0.141%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV +2.15%E +0.525%K +0.695%G +0.015%3.1%2026-05-03 14:40
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.52%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -0.337%E -0.084%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 14:40
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -0.337%E -0.084%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 14:23
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.02%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.72%EV -1.58%E -0.401%K -0.537%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-03 14:31
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 14:31
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.89%EV -1.10%E -0.462%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.96%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-03 14:31
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -2.83%E -0.725%K -0.975%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 14:35
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -4.07%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 14:20
Pinnacle2.35I 42.55%NM 41.22%EV -2.35%E -0.998%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -2.43%E -0.835%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 14:40
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89%EV -3.18%E -1.36%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 14:31
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.75%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 14:31
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 14:35
Codere (IT)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.73%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:25
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:00
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 14:00
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.32%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 14:35
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 14:20
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:31
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:31
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:01
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:30
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -5.26%E -2.30%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 14:31
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:35
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:40
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 14:35
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -12.82%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -6.57%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 14:19
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.30%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.31%EV -8.46%E -3.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.38%EV -7.06%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:26
LowVig.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetOnline.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetAnything2.26I 44.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.69%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.45%EV -2.09%E -0.717%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -5.45%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Betsson2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -5.45%E -1.93%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Bovada2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.35%EV -8.13%E -2.97%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:40
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -4.44%E -1.56%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.76%E -0.953%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:19
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:20
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 14:31
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 14:40
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:21
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.34%EV -12.82%E -4.93%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -7.81%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:40
BetUS2.30I 43.48%NM 40.79%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 14:40
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:31
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:30
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -7.33%E -3.29%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -9.06%E -2.48%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 14:31
Marathon Bet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.08%EV -5.67%E -2.50%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.12%E -2.18%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -9.31%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:38
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -4.42%E -1.92%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -11.55%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 14:40
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.95%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.24%EV -11.15%E -4.21%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -11.55%E -3.25%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-03 14:35
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:35
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:35
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.50%E -2.89%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 14:40
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -8.58%E -3.90%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -7.79%E -2.83%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.79%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 14:20
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -10.66%E -4.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -9.47%E -3.51%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -15.29%E -4.50%K -6.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 39.72%EV -12.73%E -6.06%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.37%EV -16.18%E -6.47%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.91%EV -22.76%E -7.34%K -10.84%G +0.000%19.9%2026-05-03 14:23
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.54%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.24%0.3%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-03 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-05-03 14:35
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%1.6%2026-05-03 14:41
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 41.32%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%3.9%2026-05-03 14:20