Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.13
assuming max odds 24.00
assuming max odds 12.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ajax (Local): 85.12%; Willem II (Visit): 5.37%; Draw: 9.51%. For Willem II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.62. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.91%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 3.5% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 3.5% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 3.5% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182% | 5.3% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182% | 5.3% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.34%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.36%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157% | 10.30I 9.71%NM 9.30%EV -2.03%E -0.197%K -0.219%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.27%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 7.1% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-15 17:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 4.4% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 4.4% | 2026-09-15 17:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 4.4% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 4.4% | 2026-09-15 17:46 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.87%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 18.25I 5.48%NM 5.08%EV -1.98%E -0.108%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.05%EV -2.51%E -0.245%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.42%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000% | 18.05I 5.54%NM 5.35%EV -3.05%E -0.169%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 10.46I 9.56%NM 9.23%EV -0.511%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.16%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.30%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.51%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.26%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.23%EV -12.02%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.11%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.64%EV -6.79%E -0.693%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.17%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-15 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.01%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.13%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.61%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.45%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.93%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021% | 5.4% | 2026-09-15 16:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-15 17:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.89%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000% | 15.75I 6.35%NM 5.65%EV -15.40%E -0.978%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-15 17:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.07%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.66%EV -7.26%E -0.745%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-15 17:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.52%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 84.27%EV -10.63%E -10.12%K -212.53%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.90%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-15 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.98%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 82.63%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -23.91%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-15 17:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.77%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.70%EV -27.49%E -2.04%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-15 17:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 0.6% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.44% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.02% | 28.99I 3.45%NM 3.40% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.58% | 1.4% | 2026-09-15 17:56 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.91% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.80% | 2.3% | 2026-09-15 16:35 |