Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax v Willem II

Inicio: 2026-09-15 18:00 UTC

Final: Ajax 5–1 Willem II

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 85.12%1.17momio equitativo
EV -3.82%
Ventaja -3.38%
Kelly -29.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
82.63%85.17%85.13%87.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.051.101.101.1395.24%91.23%90.91%88.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Willem II (Visitante)

Predicción 5.37%18.62momio equitativo
EV +28.91%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.26%
Crecimiento +0.363%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 24.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
3.94%5.32%5.35%6.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
13.5018.4218.1524.007.41%5.43%5.51%4.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 9.51%10.51momio equitativo
EV +14.14%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.29%
Crecimiento +0.182%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.92%9.51%9.52%11.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.009.799.6312.0012.50%10.21%10.39%8.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ajax (Local): 85.12%; Willem II (Visitante): 5.37%; Empate: 9.51%. Para Willem II (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 18.62. 27 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 24.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +28.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 17:15
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:56
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:56
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:55
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182%5.3%2026-09-15 17:45
betano_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182%5.3%2026-09-15 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:50
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.34%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.36%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157%10.30I 9.71%NM 9.30%EV -2.03%E -0.197%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-15 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.27%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%7.1%2026-09-15 17:56
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 17:56
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:46
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:45
BetAnything🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:46
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
William Hill🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:56
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:56
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-15 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-15 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.87%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%18.25I 5.48%NM 5.08%EV -1.98%E -0.108%K -0.115%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.05%EV -2.51%E -0.245%K -0.271%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 17:56
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.42%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000%18.05I 5.54%NM 5.35%EV -3.05%E -0.169%K -0.179%G +0.000%10.46I 9.56%NM 9.23%EV -0.511%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Coolbet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.16%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.30%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-15 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.51%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.26%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.23%EV -12.02%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.11%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.64%EV -6.79%E -0.693%K -0.771%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.17%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 17:40
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.01%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 17:45
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.13%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:56
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.61%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.45%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.93%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%5.4%2026-09-15 16:20
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.89%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%15.75I 6.35%NM 5.65%EV -15.40%E -0.978%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-15 17:49
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.07%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.66%EV -7.26%E -0.745%K -0.830%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 17:45
Betway🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.52%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:15
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 17:15
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 17:20
Sky Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-15 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.27%EV -10.63%E -10.12%K -212.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.90%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-15 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.98%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.63%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -23.91%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-15 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.77%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.70%EV -27.49%E -2.04%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 17:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Matchbook◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.44%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%1.0%2026-09-15 17:56
Smarkets◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.02%28.99I 3.45%NM 3.40%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.58%1.4%2026-09-15 17:56
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.91%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.80%2.3%2026-09-15 16:35