Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Ajax v Willem II

Inizio: 2026-09-15 18:00 UTC

Finale: Ajax 5–1 Willem II

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

56 bookmaker (21 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Ajax (Casa)

Previsione 85.12%1.17quota equa
EV -3.82%
Vantaggio -3.38%
Kelly -29.36%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.13

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
82.63%85.17%85.13%87.95%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.051.101.101.1395.24%91.23%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Willem II (Trasferta)

Previsione 5.37%18.62quota equa
EV +28.91%
Vantaggio +1.20%
Kelly +1.26%
Crescita +0.363%

ipotizzando la quota massima 24.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
3.94%5.32%5.35%6.70%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
13.5018.4218.1524.007.41%5.43%5.51%4.17%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 9.51%10.51quota equa
EV +14.14%
Vantaggio +1.18%
Kelly +1.29%
Crescita +0.182%

ipotizzando la quota massima 12.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
7.92%9.51%9.52%11.05%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
8.009.799.6312.0012.50%10.21%10.39%8.33%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Ajax (Casa): 85.12%; Willem II (Trasferta): 5.37%; Pareggio: 9.51%. Per Willem II (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 18.62. 27 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 24.00, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +28.91%.

Quote dei bookmaker (56 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 17:15
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.30%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.94%EV +28.91%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.363%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.76%EV -16.30%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 17:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:56
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:56
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.02%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.78%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%3.5%2026-09-15 17:55
Bet Victor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182%5.3%2026-09-15 17:45
betano_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +14.14%E +1.18%K +1.29%G +0.182%5.3%2026-09-15 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.94%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +23.54%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.252%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:50
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.34%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.36%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157%10.30I 9.71%NM 9.30%EV -2.03%E -0.197%K -0.219%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-15 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.27%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +18.17%E +0.826%K +0.865%G +0.157%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%7.1%2026-09-15 17:56
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.53%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 17:56
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV +12.79%E +0.609%K +0.640%G +0.082%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:46
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:45
BetAnything🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%4.4%2026-09-15 17:46
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
William Hill🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.20%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:56
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:56
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-15 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%EV +2.05%E +0.108%K +0.114%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-15 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.87%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%18.25I 5.48%NM 5.08%EV -1.98%E -0.108%K -0.115%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.05%EV -2.51%E -0.245%K -0.271%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 17:56
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.42%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000%18.05I 5.54%NM 5.35%EV -3.05%E -0.169%K -0.179%G +0.000%10.46I 9.56%NM 9.23%EV -0.511%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Coolbet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.16%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.30%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-15 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.51%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.26%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.23%EV -12.02%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.11%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.64%EV -6.79%E -0.693%K -0.771%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 17:35
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.09%EV -7.22%E -6.63%K -80.24%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -3.32%E -0.184%K -0.195%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.17%EV -3.82%E -3.38%K -29.36%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -0.131%E -0.012%K -0.014%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 17:40
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.01%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 17:45
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.13%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:56
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.61%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV -8.69%E -0.511%K -0.543%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.45%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.93%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV +4.63%E +0.420%K +0.463%G +0.021%5.4%2026-09-15 16:20
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.46%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -14.06%E -0.879%K -0.937%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.89%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%15.75I 6.35%NM 5.65%EV -15.40%E -0.978%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-15 17:49
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.07%EV -4.67%E -4.17%K -38.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.66%EV -7.26%E -0.745%K -0.830%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 17:45
Betway🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -4.89%E -0.489%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.52%EV -5.52%E -4.97%K -50.18%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 17:15
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 17:15
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -6.37%E -5.79%K -63.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 17:20
Sky Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.66%EV -9.78%E -9.22%K -162.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.91%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -19.15%E -2.25%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-15 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.27%EV -10.63%E -10.12%K -212.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.90%EV -19.43%E -1.30%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -14.40%E -1.60%K -1.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-15 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.98%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.63%EV -8.92%E -8.34%K -127.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -24.80%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -23.91%E -2.99%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-15 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.77%EV -8.07%E -7.48%K -100.91%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.70%EV -27.49%E -2.04%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -9.64%E -1.01%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 17:50
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.74%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%0.6%2026-09-15 17:56
Matchbook◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.44%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%1.0%2026-09-15 17:56
Smarkets◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.02%28.99I 3.45%NM 3.40%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.58%1.4%2026-09-15 17:56
Kalshi◎1.12I 89.29%NM 87.29%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.91%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.80%2.3%2026-09-15 16:35