Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax v FC Twente Enschede

Inicio: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 41.28%2.42momio equitativo
EV -0.920%
Ventaja -0.383%
Kelly -0.657%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.08%41.26%41.25%43.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.272.282.4048.78%44.07%43.86%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Twente Enschede (Visitante)

Predicción 33.55%2.98momio equitativo
EV +0.645%
Ventaja +0.215%
Kelly +0.323%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.37%33.52%33.58%34.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.782.803.0041.67%36.02%35.71%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.17%3.97momio equitativo
EV -0.081%
Ventaja -0.021%
Kelly -0.027%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.46%25.22%25.16%27.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.663.653.9732.26%27.35%27.40%25.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ajax (Local): 41.28%; FC Twente Enschede (Visitante): 33.55%; Empate: 25.17%. Para FC Twente Enschede (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.98. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.645%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.16%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.37%EV +0.645%E +0.215%K +0.323%G +0.002%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.46%EV -0.081%E -0.021%K -0.027%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-04 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.30%EV -2.57%E -1.09%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.38%EV -2.04%E -0.698%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-04 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.30%EV -2.57%E -1.09%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.38%EV -2.04%E -0.698%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.66%EV -0.920%E -0.383%K -0.657%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.65%EV -2.71%E -0.934%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-04 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%EV -0.920%E -0.383%K -0.657%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%EV -2.71%E -0.934%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%EV -0.920%E -0.383%K -0.657%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%EV -2.71%E -0.934%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-04 18:50
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -3.38%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.30%EV -3.40%E -1.45%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.79%EV -4.05%E -1.42%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.91%EV -2.35%E -0.605%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.98%E -1.27%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.52%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 18:50
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.22%E -1.82%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 18:55
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.22%E -1.82%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -2.98%E -1.27%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 14:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.64%EV -6.29%E -2.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 07:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 00:05
BetUS🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 12:40
BetAnything🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.39%E -1.54%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 12:45
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.07%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -1.84%E -0.473%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 18:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.34%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-01 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.48%EV -3.81%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.22%E -1.82%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:50
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.58%EV -4.22%E -1.82%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:49
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:50
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:50
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 18:54
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.32%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -6.06%E -2.17%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.47%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 18:49
Bovada🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.78%EV -6.74%E -2.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 18:48
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 18:30
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-01 23:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-01 23:25
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 18:50
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:54
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -10.65%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -5.87%E -2.58%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -10.65%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 18:50
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -7.74%E -2.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.06%EV -6.29%E -2.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.02%EV -8.08%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.92%EV -5.87%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:53
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.51%EV -13.31%E -6.34%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.70%EV -8.41%E -3.08%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 18:35
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -5.05%E -2.20%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.42%E -3.49%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.53%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -9.42%E -3.49%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.65%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.53%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -9.42%E -3.49%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.65%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.53%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -9.42%E -3.49%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.65%E -3.00%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.64%EV -15.37%E -7.50%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.38%EV -9.42%E -3.49%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-04 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -11.10%E -4.19%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-02 06:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -11.10%E -4.19%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -8.14%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-02 06:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.57%EV -12.48%E -5.89%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.25%EV -11.10%E -4.19%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-04 18:54
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -11.77%E -4.47%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -14.43%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -12.10%E -4.62%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.91%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 18:50
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -12.77%E -4.91%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -9.39%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-04 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -19.48%E -8.12%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -21.98%E -7.09%K -10.47%G +0.000%19.4%2026-04-04 18:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.82%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-04-04 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-04-04 18:45
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 41.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-04-04 18:50
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.60%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.52%1.8%2026-04-04 18:50