Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.06
assuming max odds 3.52
assuming max odds 4.03
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ADO Den Haag (Local): 47.69%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 27.95%; Draw: 24.36%. For Fortuna Sittard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.03%EV -1.76%E -0.856%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.92%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 24.04%EV -1.82%E -0.452%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.44%EV -2.72%E -1.33%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -3.57%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.77%E -0.954%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.35%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -4.99%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.35%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -4.99%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.14%EV -4.15%E -2.06%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.49%EV -1.61%E -0.459%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.37%EV -3.28%E -0.827%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.89%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 14:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.89%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 14:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 09:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 09:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 10:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 04:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.99%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 10:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -4.63%E -2.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.56%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.49%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 14:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.53%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -2.17%E -0.621%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.53%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -2.17%E -0.621%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.53%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -2.17%E -0.621%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.53%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -2.17%E -0.621%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -2.55%E -0.638%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.48%EV -3.57%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.48%EV -3.57%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.85%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -4.99%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.12%EV -6.06%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.12%EV -6.06%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.12%EV -6.06%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -6.06%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.95%EV -6.53%E -3.33%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 14:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -6.53%E -3.33%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -3.57%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 14:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.97%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -6.37%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 10:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.10%EV -7.49%E -3.86%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -5.53%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.30%EV -6.45%E -1.68%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -7.96%E -4.13%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.08%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -7.96%E -4.13%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.08%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -7.96%E -4.13%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.08%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 14:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -8.44%E -4.40%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -6.21%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 14:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.66%EV -8.32%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -11.08%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 14:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.73%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -8.92%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.83%EV -12.30%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -9.39%E -4.94%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.17%E -0.621%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.99%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.55%EV -9.39%E -4.94%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -11.96%E -3.80%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -10.82%E -5.79%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -10.56%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -9.86%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.62%EV -12.26%E -6.66%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.86%EV -8.64%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-06 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -12.73%E -6.96%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.35%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -7.42%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.70% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.52% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 14:40 |