Language:English
Toluca v Santos Laguna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 77.98%1.28fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -10.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.02%77.85%78.11%79.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2588.50%83.96%84.03%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Santos Laguna (Visit)
Prediction 8.35%11.98fair odd
EV +25.21%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.454%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.32%8.34%8.39%10.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.8310.5015.0011.11%9.23%9.52%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.67%7.31fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.341%
Kelly +0.394%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.27%13.81%13.50%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.566.507.5017.54%15.24%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 77.98%; Santos Laguna (Visit): 8.35%; Draw: 13.67%. For Santos Laguna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.98. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.72%EV -7.21%E -6.06%K -37.93%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +25.21%E +1.68%K +1.80%G +0.454% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.95%EV -7.01%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-20 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.45%EV -4.87%E -3.99%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.46%EV +8.52%E +0.655%K +0.710%G +0.060% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%EV +1.19%E +0.161%K +0.187%G +0.002% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.45%EV -4.87%E -3.99%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.46%EV +8.52%E +0.655%K +0.710%G +0.060% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%EV +1.19%E +0.161%K +0.187%G +0.002% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.45%EV -4.87%E -3.99%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.46%EV +8.52%E +0.655%K +0.710%G +0.060% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%EV +1.19%E +0.161%K +0.187%G +0.002% | 3.2% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.40%EV -5.65%E -4.67%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 12.67I 7.89%NM 7.58%EV +5.76%E +0.455%K +0.494%G +0.028% | 7.38I 13.55%NM 13.02%EV +0.920%E +0.125%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.51%EV -5.65%E -4.67%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +0.172%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 23:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV +0.172%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 23:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +0.172%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +0.172%E +0.014%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.64%EV -8.77%E -7.49%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.83%EV -1.92%E -0.163%K -0.178%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.53%EV -7.01%E -1.03%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-20 23:53 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.65%E -4.67%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -4.00%E -0.348%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -7.70%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -5.65%E -4.67%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -4.00%E -0.348%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -7.70%E -1.14%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.03%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -4.00%E -0.348%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -0.858%E -0.118%K -0.137%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.32%EV -2.53%E -2.02%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 11.48I 8.71%NM 8.42%EV -4.17%E -0.363%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 6.78I 14.75%NM 14.26%EV -7.28%E -1.07%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.83%EV -4.09%E -3.32%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 11.10I 9.01%NM 8.62%EV -7.34%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 7.07I 14.14%NM 13.54%EV -3.32%E -0.469%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 23:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -8.18%E -0.743%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -4.87%E -3.99%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -8.18%E -0.743%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.18%E -0.743%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.36%EV -9.55%E -8.23%K -59.66%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -8.18%E -0.743%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV +2.56%E +0.341%K +0.394%G +0.010% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 23:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -8.18%E -0.743%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 22:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.90%EV -8.77%E -7.49%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV +2.56%E +0.341%K +0.394%G +0.010% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.02%EV -4.09%E -3.32%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -22.05%E -3.87%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.02%EV -4.09%E -3.32%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -22.05%E -3.87%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.82%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.78%EV -12.35%E -1.18%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -12.48%E -1.95%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.07%EV -5.65%E -4.67%K -26.89%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -14.53%E -2.33%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.80%EV -7.21%E -6.06%K -37.93%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -16.58%E -2.72%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -16.58%E -2.72%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.25%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.75%EV -16.58%E -2.72%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 22:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.32%EV -11.11%E -9.74%K -79.33%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -4.28%E -0.611%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 76.56%EV -9.55%E -8.23%K -59.66%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -16.58%E -2.72%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 77.38%EV -11.89%E -10.52%K -91.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.74%EV -16.52%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 13.88%EV -13.85%E -2.20%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -7.99%E -6.77%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.70%E -2.18%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 76.49%EV -11.89%E -10.52%K -91.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.10%EV -20.70%E -2.18%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.41%EV -17.95%E -2.99%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.88%EV -6.43%E -5.36%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -24.87%E -2.76%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.34%EV -8.77%E -7.49%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -24.87%E -2.76%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -11.11%E -1.71%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.44%EV -9.55%E -8.23%K -59.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.72%EV -24.87%E -2.76%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.83%EV -19.32%E -3.27%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-20 23:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.10% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.10% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-20 23:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.10% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.10% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.88% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-09-20 23:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.16% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.24% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 23:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.80% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.73% | 2.3% | 2026-09-20 23:54 |