Language:English
Toluca v Atlas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 60.91%1.64fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.95%61.05%64.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.491.501.6072.46%66.94%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atlas (Visit)
Prediction 16.61%6.02fair odd
EV +12.15%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +2.11%
Growth +0.257%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.72%16.55%16.45%17.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.745.726.7520.41%17.42%17.47%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.248%
Kelly -0.321%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%22.50%22.50%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.104.104.4026.67%24.40%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 60.91%; Atlas (Visit): 16.61%; Draw: 22.48%. For Atlas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.02. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.75%EV -12.90%E -9.02%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV +12.15%E +1.80%K +2.11%G +0.257% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -3.34%E -0.777%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-15 00:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.62%EV -9.25%E -6.21%K -18.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +7.99%E +1.23%K +1.45%G +0.116% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -2.22%E -0.509%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.62%EV -9.25%E -6.21%K -18.88%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +7.99%E +1.23%K +1.45%G +0.116% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -2.22%E -0.509%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.63%EV -11.08%E -7.59%K -24.08%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.79%EV -11.69%E -8.06%K -25.97%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.79%EV -11.69%E -8.06%K -25.97%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.79%EV -11.69%E -8.06%K -25.97%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.79%EV -11.69%E -8.06%K -25.97%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.79%EV -11.69%E -8.06%K -25.97%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.78%EV -12.29%E -8.54%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.35%EV +6.33%E +0.989%K +1.17%G +0.074% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.39%EV -12.90%E -9.02%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV +3.84%E +0.614%K +0.731%G +0.028% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.39%EV -12.90%E -9.02%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV +3.84%E +0.614%K +0.731%G +0.028% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.55%EV -13.51%E -9.52%K -32.17%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.44%EV +3.84%E +0.614%K +0.731%G +0.028% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.64%EV -15.95%E -11.56%K -41.97%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.40%EV +1.35%E +0.221%K +0.264%G +0.004% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.92%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -0.315%E -0.052%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.59%E -3.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -1.98%E -0.335%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.21%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -5.59%E -3.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -1.98%E -0.335%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -11.21%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-15 00:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.73%EV -1.98%E -0.335%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -3.34%E -0.777%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-15 00:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.96%EV -3.77%E -2.38%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.38%EV -2.31%E -0.393%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.66%EV -4.46%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.07%EV -4.38%E -2.79%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 5.84I 17.12%NM 16.42%EV -2.97%E -0.509%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.51%EV -4.24%E -0.995%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.20%EV -3.77%E -2.38%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.82%EV -4.47%E -0.777%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.98%EV -1.09%E -0.248%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -6.20%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -4.47%E -0.777%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.18%EV -6.20%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -4.47%E -0.777%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -5.59%E -3.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -4.47%E -0.777%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -4.47%E -0.777%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.38%EV -9.25%E -6.21%K -18.88%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -5.30%E -0.930%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.58%EV -8.96%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.61%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 5.67I 17.64%NM 16.62%EV -5.80%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -2.67%E -0.616%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.84%EV -6.20%E -4.03%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.58%EV -6.13%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.58%EV -6.71%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.98%EV -7.42%E -4.88%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.41%EV -6.13%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.51%EV -2.55%E -1.59%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.62I 17.79%NM 17.23%EV -6.63%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.22%E -0.509%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.05%EV -8.03%E -5.32%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -6.96%E -1.24%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-15 00:47 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-15 00:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-15 00:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -5.59%E -3.61%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -13.46%E -3.49%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-15 00:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -12.29%E -8.54%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-15 00:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -6.81%E -4.45%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -12.78%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.19%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -12.78%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.33%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-15 00:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.19%EV -9.86%E -6.66%K -20.54%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -12.78%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -12.33%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-15 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.27%EV -11.08%E -7.59%K -24.08%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.76%EV -12.78%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 22.97%EV -13.91%E -3.63%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-15 00:53 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.85%EV -12.29%E -8.54%K -27.94%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.69%EV -12.78%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -12.33%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-15 00:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.53%EV -13.61%E -2.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.24%EV -14.73%E -10.52%K -36.83%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.49%EV -13.61%E -2.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.27%EV -13.46%E -3.49%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-03-15 00:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.08%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-15 00:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -8.64%E -5.76%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.80%EV -10.47%E -7.12%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -11.21%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.27% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.66% | 0.4% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.27% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.66% | 0.4% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57% | 0.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57% | 0.8% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.94% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.31% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.75% | 2.2% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.49% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.37% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.15% | 3.9% | 2026-03-15 00:55 |