The School of Odds

Tijuana v Tigres

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 03:10 UTC

Final: Tijuana 3–1 Tigres

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Tijuana (Local)

Prediction 26.58%3.76fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.617%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.47%26.67%26.59%28.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.7032%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tigres (Visit)

Prediction 45.84%2.18fair odd
EV +0.383%
Edge +0.175%
Kelly +0.322%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.21%45.70%45.81%47.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.852.012.002.1954%50%50%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.59%3.63fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%27.63%27.60%29.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.353.5133%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.48I 28.74%NM 27.56%EV -7.51%E -2.16%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.80%EV +0.383%E +0.175%K +0.322%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.63%EV -7.59%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 03:05
BetOnline.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.52%EV -3.17%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-17 03:00
LowVig.ag3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.52%EV -3.17%E -0.904%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-17 03:00
Pinnacle3.66I 27.32%NM 26.27%EV -2.73%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.78%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.95%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 03:05
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.45%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 02:54
Bet Victor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 03:05
betano_uk3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.74%E -1.78%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 03:04
SportsBet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -4.66%E -2.24%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.45%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 02:55
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -4.66%E -2.24%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 03:05
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -4.66%E -2.24%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 03:05
Coolbet3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 02:05
DraftKings3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 02:50
Betway3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 03:00
Unibet (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 02:00
BetUS3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 02:55
PlayUp3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 03:05
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.59%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 02:55
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -6.03%E -2.94%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -17.24%E -5.75%K -8.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-17 03:05
Marathon Bet3.48I 28.74%NM 26.62%EV -7.51%E -2.16%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.64%EV -6.95%E -3.42%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 03:00
GTbets3.61I 27.70%NM 26.15%EV -4.06%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.73%EV -7.41%E -3.67%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.12%EV -4.00%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 02:34
LeoVegas3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -7.41%E -3.67%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -7.59%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 03:00
Svenska Spel3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.617%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.45%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 02:55
ATG (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.617%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.45%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 02:55
Fanatics3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.45%E -0.986%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 06:19
Everygame3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 01:10
Fliff3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 02:55
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-17 02:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-17 02:55
betfred_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -14.95%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-17 02:55
Neds3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -11.73%E -3.66%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-17 02:55
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -17.61%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-17 02:54
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -17.24%E -5.75%K -8.62%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-17 02:50
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -17.24%E -5.75%K -8.62%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-17 02:50
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -8.33%E -4.16%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -17.24%E -5.75%K -8.62%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-17 02:50
Unibet3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.38%EV -9.70%E -4.92%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 02:55
BetRivers3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -9.70%E -4.92%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-17 02:45
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -9.70%E -4.92%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 03:05
betPARX3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -10.16%E -5.18%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 02:55
Casumo3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -10.16%E -5.18%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 02:55
Grosvenor3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -10.16%E -5.18%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 02:55
Unibet (NL)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -10.16%E -5.18%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 02:55
Unibet (SE)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -10.16%E -5.18%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 02:55
TABtouch3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.41%EV -11.08%E -5.71%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.21%E -1.83%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 02:55
Betclic (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.02%EV -11.08%E -5.71%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -11.17%E -3.47%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-17 02:44
LeoVegas (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.30%EV -11.99%E -6.25%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -7.59%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 02:55
LiveScore Bet3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.30%EV -11.99%E -6.25%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -7.59%E -2.26%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 02:55
NetBet (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.79%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.58%EV -12.45%E -6.52%K -13.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -13.10%E -4.16%K -6.10%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-17 03:05
Virgin Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -12.91%E -6.79%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.97%E -2.72%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-17 02:55
PMU (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -8.31%E -2.41%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.50%EV -15.20%E -8.22%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -10.35%E -3.18%K -4.60%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-17 02:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.36%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-07-17 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.34%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.06%1.2%2026-07-17 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%1.9%2026-07-17 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%1.9%2026-07-17 03:05
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.77%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.09%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%2.3%2026-07-17 03:05
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-07-17 03:05