The School of Odds
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Querétaro v FC Juárez

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro (Local)

Prediction 36.81%2.72fair odd
EV -0.620%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.365%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.23%36.66%36.92%37.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.552.552.7043.10%39.26%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Juárez (Visit)

Prediction 32.88%3.04fair odd
EV +0.605%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.294%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.31%33.03%32.59%35.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.703.0639.22%36.63%37.04%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.454%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%30.31%30.48%31.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.063.103.2535.46%32.65%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Querétaro (Local): 36.81%; FC Juárez (Visit): 32.88%; Draw: 30.32%. For FC Juárez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.605%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -3.93%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV +0.605%E +0.198%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-22 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -5.04%E -1.95%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -2.03%E -0.680%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-23 00:34
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -7.25%E -2.88%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -2.03%E -0.680%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.66%E -3.24%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 22:44
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -7.25%E -2.88%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -2.03%E -0.680%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -9.66%E -3.24%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 22:44
Bovada🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.39%EV -9.09%E -3.68%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -3.01%E -1.02%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -10.57%E -3.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-23 00:55
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -6.14%E -2.41%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -4.66%E -1.61%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 21:24
BetUS🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.00%EV -8.35%E -3.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -4.66%E -1.61%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -10.57%E -3.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 22:44
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.98%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -5.31%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 13:15
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -6.30%E -2.21%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.09%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-22 22:45
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.94%E -2.84%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.99%E -0.935%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 19:04
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.14%E -2.41%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.99%E -0.935%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 23:09
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.14%E -2.41%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 19:00
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -7.98%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-22 18:59
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -12.40%E -5.21%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -9.59%E -3.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-20 05:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -0.620%E -0.230%K -0.365%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.48%E -0.454%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-20 05:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -0.620%E -0.230%K -0.365%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.48%E -0.454%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -7.98%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-23 00:55
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.09%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-23 00:49
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.09%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-23 00:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.09%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-23 00:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -11.23%E -4.16%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.09%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-23 00:50
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 05:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-20 05:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.06%EV -14.61%E -6.30%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.45%EV -12.88%E -4.86%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.49%EV -14.51%E -5.15%K -7.97%G +0.000%16.3%2026-02-23 00:55
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -3.20%E -1.22%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.45%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -9.82%E -4.01%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -13.53%E -5.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 19:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -7.98%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -13.86%E -5.29%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-22 22:00
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.52%E -5.58%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -4.51%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-20 05:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.52%E -5.58%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-20 05:35
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.52%E -5.58%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-20 05:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.30%E -1.65%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.52%E -5.58%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-20 05:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -6.14%E -2.41%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -16.16%E -6.34%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-20 05:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-02-23 00:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%1.7%2026-02-23 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%1.7%2026-02-23 00:35
Matchbook◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%1.7%2026-02-23 00:55
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.15%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%3.5%2026-02-23 00:55