Pumas v Pachuca

2026-07-18 23:00 — Liga MX

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Option 1: Pumas (Local)

Odds

2.1546.51%Min

2.2344.81%Mean

2.2045.45%Median

2.3542.55%Max

Consensus probabilities

39.85%2.510Min

41.42%2.414Max

40.79%2.451Mean

41.12%2.432Median

40.79%2.451IQM

40.97%2.441Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.35 under the IQM model: 40.79%

EV -4.13%Edge -1.76%Kelly -3.06%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Pachuca (Visit)

Odds

2.6338.02%Min

2.7835.97%Mean

2.7536.36%Median

2.9034.48%Max

Consensus probabilities

31.88%3.137Min

33.04%3.027Max

32.40%3.087Mean

32.61%3.066Median

32.40%3.087IQM

32.50%3.077Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.90 under the IQM model: 32.40%

EV -6.05%Edge -2.09%Kelly -3.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.1032.26%Min

3.3529.89%Mean

3.3529.85%Median

3.6027.78%Max

Consensus probabilities

25.88%3.864Min

28.28%3.536Max

26.81%3.730Mean

26.27%3.807Median

26.81%3.730IQM

26.53%3.769Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 26.81%

EV -3.48%Edge -0.967%Kelly -1.34%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Pumas (Local) ▼	Pachuca (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.06%EV -4.13% E -1.76% K -3.06% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.04%EV -7.67% E -2.69% K -4.15% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 26.90%EV -6.16% E -1.76% K -2.46% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 14:35
Fanatics	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.12%EV -6.17% E -2.68% K -4.75% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.61%EV -6.05% E -2.09% K -3.19% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 26.27%EV -3.48% E -0.967% K -1.34% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 17:30
FanDuel	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.42%EV -8.21% E -3.65% K -6.57% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.70%EV -7.67% E -2.69% K -4.15% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.89%EV -3.48% E -0.967% K -1.34% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-05 13:01
SportsBet	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.42%EV -8.21% E -3.65% K -6.57% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.70%EV -7.67% E -2.69% K -4.15% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 25.89%EV -3.48% E -0.967% K -1.34% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-05 14:50
LeoVegas	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.16%EV -8.21% E -3.65% K -6.57% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 32.86%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85% NM 26.98%EV -10.18% E -3.04% K -4.33% G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-05 16:20
Paddy Power	2.20I 45.45% NM 41.18%EV -10.25% E -4.66% K -8.54% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 32.94%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57% NM 25.88%EV -6.16% E -1.76% K -2.46% G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-05 14:55
William Hill	2.20I 45.45% NM 39.85%EV -10.25% E -4.66% K -8.54% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.88%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.28%EV -16.89% E -5.45% K -8.04% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-05 15:39
888sport (SE)	2.20I 45.45% NM 39.85%EV -10.25% E -4.66% K -8.54% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.88%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.28%EV -16.89% E -5.45% K -8.04% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-05 17:25
888sport	2.20I 45.45% NM 39.85%EV -10.25% E -4.66% K -8.54% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.88%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.28%EV -16.89% E -5.45% K -8.04% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-05 17:30
Mr Green (SE)	2.20I 45.45% NM 39.85%EV -10.25% E -4.66% K -8.54% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 31.88%EV -10.91% E -3.97% K -6.24% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 28.28%EV -16.89% E -5.45% K -8.04% G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-05 17:29
Sky Bet	2.15I 46.51% NM 40.34%EV -12.29% E -5.72% K -10.69% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 32.98%EV -14.80% E -5.63% K -9.08% G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77% NM 26.69%EV -12.86% E -3.96% K -5.72% G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-07-05 17:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth