L’École des cotes

Puebla v León

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 01:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

49 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Puebla (Local)

Prévision 34.86%2.87cote équitable
EV -0.658%
Avantage -0.231%
Kelly -0.356%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.54%34.99%34.82%38.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.322.572.602.8543.10%38.85%38.46%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

León (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.34%2.61cote équitable
EV +3.53%
Avantage +1.31%
Kelly +2.08%
Croissance +0.073%

avec la cote maximale 2.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.11%38.21%38.38%40.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.462.452.7044.44%40.58%40.82%37.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.80%3.73cote équitable
EV -2.99%
Avantage -0.826%
Kelly -1.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.62

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.89%26.80%26.80%29.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.413.423.6234.72%29.31%29.24%27.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (49 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -12.86%E -5.14%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%EV +3.53%E +1.31%K +2.08%G +0.073%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.87%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 00:35
Svenska Spel2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%EV -12.86%E -5.14%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%EV +3.53%E +1.31%K +2.08%G +0.073%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.87%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 00:35
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV +1.61%E +0.609%K +0.978%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:35
BetRivers2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -15.30%E -6.30%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.15%EV +0.847%E +0.322%K +0.520%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 00:35
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -15.30%E -6.30%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -0.303%E -0.117%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -16.34%E -6.81%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -0.303%E -0.117%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 00:35
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -16.34%E -6.81%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -0.303%E -0.117%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 00:35
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.54%EV -5.19%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.61%EV -1.45%E -0.566%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -3.53%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 00:35
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.54%EV -5.19%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.61%EV -1.45%E -0.566%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -3.53%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 00:35
Coolbet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -6.58%E -2.46%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -2.22%E -0.871%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.13%EV -5.94%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 00:45
Virgin Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -17.04%E -7.16%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.30%EV -2.22%E -0.871%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -10.23%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 00:35
Pinnacle2.77I 36.10%NM 34.96%EV -3.45%E -1.24%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.28%EV -2.99%E -1.18%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.75%EV -2.99%E -0.826%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 00:55
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 38.01%EV -19.13%E -8.25%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -11.57%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-11 00:35
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 38.01%EV -19.13%E -8.25%K -14.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.27%EV -4.14%E -1.66%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -11.57%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-11 00:35
Bovada2.61I 38.31%NM 35.35%EV -9.02%E -3.46%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.51%EV -5.67%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 00:44
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.14%E -1.51%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.74%EV -4.87%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 00:55
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -5.89%E -2.18%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 00:55
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.63%E -2.88%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:54
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.89%E -2.18%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 00:50
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.89%E -2.18%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 00:50
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -6.06%E -2.47%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 00:45
1xBet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -0.658%E -0.231%K -0.356%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.35%EV -6.44%E -2.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.97%EV -4.60%E -1.29%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 00:55
GTbets2.73I 36.63%NM 34.62%EV -4.84%E -1.77%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.90%EV -6.82%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.48%EV -4.33%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 00:55
Marathon Bet2.67I 37.45%NM 34.73%EV -6.93%E -2.60%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.16%EV -6.82%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.11%EV -8.35%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 00:55
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -5.19%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.21%E -2.98%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:55
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -5.19%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.21%E -2.98%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.55%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 00:55
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -5.89%E -2.18%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 00:54
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -5.89%E -2.18%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 00:55
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-11 00:50
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -8.68%E -3.31%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.97%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.57%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 00:50
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.42%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -8.74%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.97%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 00:50
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -7.63%E -2.88%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -9.89%E -4.21%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 00:55
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -11.12%E -4.36%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -9.89%E -4.21%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 00:55
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.57%EV -18.09%E -7.70%K -13.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.57%EV -9.89%E -4.21%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.86%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-11 00:45
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -4.14%E -1.51%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.21%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 00:55
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -12.86%E -5.14%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -8.89%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-11 00:35
888sport2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 00:40
William Hill2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 00:45
Mr Green (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 00:40
888sport (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.37%E -3.60%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -14.25%E -4.45%K -6.48%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 00:40
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -14.60%E -5.96%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -10.23%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-11 00:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.84%EV -12.86%E -5.14%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.78%EV -11.81%E -5.13%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -22.82%E -7.92%K -12.14%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-11 00:35
Betclic (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 34.86%EV -12.16%E -4.83%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.53%EV -12.57%E -5.51%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.57%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-11 00:51
Unibet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -11.12%E -4.36%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.15%EV -13.72%E -6.10%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.30%EV -10.23%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-11 00:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.88I 34.72%NM 34.42%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%0.9%2026-04-11 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.58%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-04-11 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.47%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.51%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-04-11 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.47%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.51%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-04-11 00:55
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-11 00:55
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 34.56%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.37%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-04-11 00:55