Language:English
Pachuca v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pachuca (Local)
Prediction 25.58%3.91fair odd
EV -0.243%
Edge -0.062%
Kelly -0.084%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.61%25.55%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.603.9030.30%27.94%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 49.31%2.03fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.89%49.25%49.24%50.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.871.871.9857.80%53.34%53.48%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.667%
Kelly -0.898%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%25.14%25.20%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.633.653.8831.25%27.56%27.40%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pachuca (Local): 25.58%; Toluca (Visit): 49.31%; Draw: 25.11%. For Pachuca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -0.243%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.243%E -0.062%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.93%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-22 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.243%E -0.062%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.93%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.13%EV -1.78%E -0.463%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.82%E -2.50%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.87%EV -2.59%E -0.667%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.80%E -0.737%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.57%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -2.80%E -0.737%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.80%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 22:43 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.65%EV -4.08%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -2.36%E -1.19%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.78%EV -6.35%E -1.70%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -4.08%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.70%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 15:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.08%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 22:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -4.08%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.20%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 22:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.36%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 22:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.36%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-22 22:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.95%EV -5.61%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.37%EV -2.36%E -1.19%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.68%EV -6.35%E -1.70%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-22 14:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.17%EV -5.87%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.31%EV -8.11%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-22 22:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.64%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -4.33%E -2.23%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.64%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -4.33%E -2.23%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -6.64%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.53%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 22:43 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.30%E -3.32%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-22 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-22 22:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.92%E -2.20%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-22 22:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 22:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -5.32%E -2.77%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 22:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -7.29%E -3.88%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.34%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -9.20%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.29%E -3.88%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-22 22:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.33%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-22 22:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.81%E -3.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-22 20:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.16%EV -8.27%E -4.45%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -7.11%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-22 17:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -10.87%E -3.06%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.78%E -4.16%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -10.87%E -3.06%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-22 22:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-22 22:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.75%E -5.33%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 22:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -10.47%E -2.99%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.13%E -3.46%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.75%E -3.41%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.87%E -3.06%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-22 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.54%EV -12.26%E -3.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.21%EV -12.22%E -6.87%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.25%EV -12.88%E -3.71%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-22 22:33 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 15:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 15:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 15:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.77%E -4.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.64%E -4.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-22 15:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.61%EV -10.74%E -5.93%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -13.38%E -3.88%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.09%EV -13.70%E -7.83%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%EV -15.89%E -4.74%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.83%EV -13.03%E -3.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.79%EV -14.69%E -8.49%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.38%EV -19.66%E -6.14%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.28%EV -14.31%E -4.27%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.92%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -10.87%E -3.06%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-22 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -15.59%E -4.72%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -11.23%E -6.24%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -9.62%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-22 15:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.97% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 0.9% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.94% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.94% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.06% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97% | 1.4% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.1% | 2026-03-22 22:35 |