Language:English
Pachuca v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pachuca (Local)
Prediction 54.49%1.84fair odd
EV +1.36%
Edge +0.729%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.64%54.58%54.46%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.8661.73%58.93%58.82%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV +4.87%
Edge +0.994%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.061%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.71%21.34%21.35%23.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.344.354.9026.32%23.03%22.99%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%24.08%24.20%25.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.773.804.1129.85%26.52%26.32%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pachuca (Local): 54.49%; Necaxa (Visit): 21.40%; Draw: 24.11%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.52%EV -5.18%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV +4.87%E +0.994%K +1.25%G +0.061% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.52%EV -5.18%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV +4.87%E +0.994%K +1.25%G +0.061% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.13%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV +0.590%E +0.126%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -10.09%E -6.11%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV +0.590%E +0.126%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -3.58%E -0.894%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.79%EV -0.694%E -0.150%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.47%EV -0.925%E -0.225%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -9.54%E -5.75%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -1.55%E -0.337%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.58%E -0.894%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.47%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.95%EV -1.98%E -0.432%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.58%EV -1.89%E -0.464%K -0.615%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.34%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.50%EV -2.37%E -0.586%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.09%E -2.33%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.09%E -2.33%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.11%EV -7.91%E -4.68%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.27%E -3.65%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.69%E -0.820%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -12.01%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -11.72%E -7.24%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -5.83%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.47%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.24%EV -7.92%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.08%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 00:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.45%E -5.03%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.48%EV -10.09%E -6.11%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -5.99%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -8.45%E -5.03%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -8.45%E -5.03%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.33%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -7.33%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -7.33%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.91%EV -10.09%E -6.11%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.93%EV -7.33%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.12%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.40%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -7.36%E -4.33%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.94%EV -11.18%E -6.86%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.94%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -15.63%E -4.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%EV -8.45%E -5.03%K -12.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.64%EV +1.36%E +0.729%K +1.58%G +0.021% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -12.01%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -13.22%E -3.67%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -11.72%E -7.24%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -9.60%E -2.56%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.63%EV -10.63%E -6.48%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.10%EV -12.01%E -3.29%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-04 00:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.50%EV -10.09%E -6.11%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -16.53%E -4.24%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -10.81%E -2.92%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 51.90%EV -10.09%E -6.11%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.54%EV -18.67%E -4.91%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%EV -19.25%E -5.74%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.46% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 0.6% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46% | 2.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46% | 2.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.58% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46% | 2.2% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.72% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65% | 3.1% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |