Language:English
Necaxa v Guadalajara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Necaxa (Local)
Prediction 17.78%5.63fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.386%
Kelly +0.467%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.23%17.80%17.79%19.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.075.005.7521.74%19.74%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guadalajara (Visit)
Prediction 60.86%1.64fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.873%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.46%60.74%60.88%62.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.531.6269.93%65.46%65.36%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV -0.853%
Edge -0.184%
Kelly -0.234%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.70%21.46%21.33%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.214.204.6425.97%23.75%23.81%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Necaxa (Local): 17.78%; Guadalajara (Visit): 60.86%; Draw: 21.37%. For Necaxa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV +2.22%E +0.386%K +0.467%G +0.010% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -7.48%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 02:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.65%EV +1.33%E +0.233%K +0.283%G +0.004% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.33%EV -4.91%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 02:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.60%EV -2.76%E -0.504%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.07%EV -2.35%E -0.514%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.71%EV -3.11%E -0.571%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.48%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.80%EV -0.853%E -0.184%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 02:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.71%EV -3.11%E -0.571%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.48%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.80%EV -0.853%E -0.184%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 02:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -4.00%E -0.741%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.60%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -3.84%E -0.854%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -4.00%E -0.741%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -7.50%E -4.93%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%EV -4.91%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 02:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -4.00%E -0.741%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -7.50%E -4.93%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%EV -4.91%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 02:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.33I 18.76%NM 17.98%EV -5.25%E -0.985%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.05%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.97%EV -2.35%E -0.514%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -6.28%E -4.08%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -6.28%E -4.08%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 02:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.60%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -7.50%E -4.93%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -6.67%E -1.27%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.93%K -14.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.03%EV -7.38%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.61%EV -5.67%E -3.66%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -7.56%E -1.45%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.60%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65%EV -9.34%E -1.83%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71%EV -1.41%E -0.873%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.65%EV -9.34%E -1.83%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.71%EV -1.41%E -0.873%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.12%EV -9.34%E -1.83%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.39%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 02:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.26%EV -10.23%E -2.02%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -6.89%E -4.50%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 02:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.78%EV -3.85%E -2.44%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -12.39%E -3.02%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -4.46%E -2.84%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 02:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -9.93%E -6.71%K -20.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-23 02:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -9.93%E -6.71%K -20.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-23 02:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.11%E -2.22%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.89%E -2.63%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.54%EV -5.07%E -3.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.89%E -2.63%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.54%EV -5.07%E -3.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.89%E -2.63%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.54%EV -5.07%E -3.25%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -12.89%E -2.63%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.72%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 02:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -12.89%E -2.63%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.94%EV -12.37%E -8.59%K -28.11%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.15%EV -11.32%E -2.73%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.04%EV -13.78%E -2.84%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.35%EV -11.76%E -8.11%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.61%EV -13.46%E -3.32%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-23 02:48 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.46%EV -6.28%E -4.08%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79%EV -15.60%E -3.95%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.67%E -3.06%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-23 02:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -15.56%E -3.28%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-23 02:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.68%EV -16.45%E -3.50%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.52%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.80%EV -17.73%E -4.61%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.68%EV -16.45%E -3.50%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.52%EV -8.72%E -5.81%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.80%EV -17.73%E -4.61%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.31%EV -16.45%E -3.50%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.18%EV -12.98%E -9.08%K -30.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.51%EV -14.53%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-04-23 02:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -18.23%E -3.96%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.90%EV -10.54%E -7.17%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.26%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-23 02:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.29% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 02:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.29% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.29% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.29% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 1.0% | 2026-04-23 02:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 2.1% | 2026-04-23 02:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.11% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75% | 2.5% | 2026-04-23 02:50 |