The School of Odds

Monterrey v Santos Laguna

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 01:05 UTC

Final: Monterrey 3–2 Santos Laguna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 64.45%1.55fair odd
EV -0.753%
Edge -0.489%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.67%64.26%64.46%65.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.461.451.5474%69%69%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Santos Laguna (Visit)

Prediction 15.37%6.51fair odd
EV +7.56%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.84%15.42%15.36%17.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.805.757.0020%17%17%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.19%4.95fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.645%
Kelly -0.815%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.13%20.32%20.17%22.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.474.504.8025%22%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 65.90%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%EV +7.56%E +1.08%K +1.26%G +0.095%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.27%EV -3.50%E -0.732%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 01:00
BetOnline.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 65.90%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%EV +7.56%E +1.08%K +1.26%G +0.095%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.27%EV -3.50%E -0.732%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-19 01:00
DraftKings1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -0.123%E -0.019%K -0.022%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -5.12%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 01:00
Betway1.43I 69.93%NM 65.74%EV -7.84%E -5.48%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -0.123%E -0.019%K -0.022%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -4.11%E -0.865%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 00:59
Pinnacle1.47I 68.03%NM 65.02%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.77%EV -0.584%E -0.090%K -0.107%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.21%EV -4.51%E -0.954%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-19 00:55
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.16%EV -3.33%E -2.22%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.92%EV -0.891%E -0.138%K -0.163%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.92%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-19 00:54
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -4.62%E -3.12%K -9.62%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.96%EV -2.43%E -0.382%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -8.14%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 00:50
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -3.96%E -0.634%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -4.11%E -0.865%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-19 01:00
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV -3.96%E -0.634%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 00:59
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.81%EV -7.84%E -5.48%K -18.24%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -3.96%E -0.634%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -8.14%E -1.79%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-19 00:59
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 62.23%EV -0.753%E -0.489%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.84%EV -7.04%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.93%EV -11.78%E -2.70%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 01:00
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -4.11%E -0.865%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 01:00
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -4.11%E -0.865%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 01:00
betano_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -4.11%E -0.865%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 00:58
FanDuel1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -9.78%E -6.98%K -24.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -3.10%E -0.645%K -0.815%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 00:59
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -12.59%E -2.91%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-19 00:54
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.78%E -6.98%K -24.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-19 01:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.78%E -6.98%K -24.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.81%E -1.30%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-19 01:00
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -9.34%E -1.58%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -14.20%E -3.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 01:00
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 62.38%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -9.34%E -1.58%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -14.20%E -3.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 01:00
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -8.49%E -5.98%K -20.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -10.88%E -1.88%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -5.12%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 01:00
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -4.62%E -3.12%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.65%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 00:55
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -4.62%E -3.12%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.65%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -13.19%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 01:00
Bet Right1.46I 68.49%NM 63.06%EV -5.91%E -4.05%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -11.65%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -11.17%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-19 00:45
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 63.69%EV -7.84%E -5.48%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -11.65%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.47%EV -10.16%E -2.28%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-19 01:00
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -12.42%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-19 01:00
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 64.48%EV -13.00%E -9.63%K -37.14%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.27%EV -12.42%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.24%EV -13.19%E -3.07%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-19 01:00
ATG (SE)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -2.69%E -1.78%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV -13.95%E -2.49%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 00:55
Svenska Spel1.51I 66.23%NM 62.58%EV -2.69%E -1.78%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV -13.95%E -2.49%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -7.13%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 00:55
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 62.42%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-19 00:40
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -11.17%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 00:55
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -12.59%E -2.91%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-19 00:38
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -19.25%E -4.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-19 01:00
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -19.25%E -4.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-19 01:00
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -15.49%E -2.82%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -19.25%E -4.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-19 01:00
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 62.38%EV -4.62%E -3.12%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.10%EV -17.03%E -3.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%EV -9.15%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 00:40
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.41%EV -5.91%E -4.05%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -17.03%E -3.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -11.17%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 62.58%EV -6.55%E -4.52%K -14.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -17.03%E -3.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -11.17%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-19 00:55
Virgin Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 62.59%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -17.03%E -3.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.72%EV -12.18%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-19 00:55
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 63.23%EV -9.13%E -6.48%K -22.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.51%EV -17.03%E -3.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.17%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-19 00:58
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 62.23%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -19.33%E -3.68%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -12.59%E -2.91%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-19 00:30
PMU (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 62.49%EV -9.13%E -6.48%K -22.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.78%EV -19.33%E -3.68%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.73%EV -14.20%E -3.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-19 00:55
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -4.62%E -3.12%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -23.17%E -4.63%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -15.21%E -3.62%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-19 00:35
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -7.20%E -5.00%K -16.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -23.17%E -4.63%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -19.25%E -4.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-19 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.51I 66.23%NM 66.15%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.27%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.58%0.1%2026-07-19 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.17%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.4%2026-07-19 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.17%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.4%2026-07-19 01:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.17%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%1.4%2026-07-19 01:00
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.68%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.68%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.63%2.0%2026-07-19 01:00
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 65.78%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.47%2.7%2026-07-19 01:00