Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Juárez v Pumas

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 03:00 UTC

Final: FC Juárez 1–5 Pumas

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Juárez (Local)

Prediction 35.78%2.80fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.32%35.77%35.92%37.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.8841.67%38.84%38.46%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pumas (Visit)

Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV -0.663%
Edge -0.247%
Kelly -0.392%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%36.91%36.83%38.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.522.502.6942.19%39.76%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -0.995%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.69%27.31%27.26%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.383.5732.26%29.81%29.59%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Juárez (Local): 35.78%; Pumas (Visit): 36.93%; Draw: 27.30%. For FC Juárez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.32%EV +3.04%E +1.05%K +1.62%G +0.049%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -8.79%E -3.56%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 02:55
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.75%EV -3.05%E -1.12%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.12%EV -3.62%E -1.39%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.14%EV -2.56%E -0.716%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-01 02:45
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -4.12%E -1.54%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.14%EV -6.94%E -2.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 02:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.12%EV -2.83%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-01 01:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.12%EV -2.83%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-01 01:50
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 02:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.57%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 02:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.57%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 02:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.19%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:54
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -6.26%E -2.39%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -6.94%E -2.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-01 02:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.50%EV -6.62%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.76%EV -6.94%E -2.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -8.83%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 02:55
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 02:04
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 02:15
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.83%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 02:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 02:03
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 02:08
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 02:09
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 02:45
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:50
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:49
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:49
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 02:49
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-01 02:34
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 02:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.98%E -2.68%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 02:10
GTbets🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.00%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.08%EV -0.663%E -0.247%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.92%EV -7.74%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 02:14
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 02:55
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 02:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 02:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 02:49
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 02:40
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.23%EV -9.48%E -3.75%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.60%EV -12.48%E -5.27%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.17%EV -10.47%E -3.19%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-01 02:54
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-01 02:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-01 02:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.30%EV -8.42%E -3.39%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-01 02:49
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 02:05
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.66%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-01 02:34
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-01 02:05
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-01 02:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-01 02:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-01 02:05
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-01 02:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -12.66%E -3.95%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-01 02:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.85%EV -13.42%E -5.55%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 36.61%EV -12.48%E -5.27%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.54%EV -14.02%E -4.45%K -6.52%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-01 02:10
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -14.14%E -5.89%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-01 02:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-01 02:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-01 02:55
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-01 02:55
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.6%2026-08-01 02:50
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48%2.1%2026-08-01 02:45