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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Atlético San Luis v Necaxa

Inicio: 2026-09-19 23:00 UTC

Final: Atlético San Luis 3–1 Necaxa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlético San Luis (Local)

Predicción 42.04%2.38momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -1.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.02%42.10%42.04%43.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.042.182.182.3249.02%45.79%45.87%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Necaxa (Visitante)

Predicción 31.33%3.19momio equitativo
EV +0.268%
Ventaja +0.084%
Kelly +0.122%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.53%31.26%31.36%32.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.932.953.2036.36%34.09%33.90%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.63%3.76momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.323%
Kelly -0.442%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.76%26.64%26.60%27.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.433.403.7131.25%29.18%29.41%26.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atlético San Luis (Local): 42.04%; Necaxa (Visitante): 31.33%; Empate: 26.63%. Para Necaxa (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.19. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.268%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV +0.268%E +0.084%K +0.122%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 14:01
GTbets🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.53%EV -0.358%E -0.113%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.38%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.71%EV -5.00%E -2.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -1.92%E -0.615%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.80%E -0.766%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 14:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.71%EV -5.00%E -2.21%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.84%EV -1.92%E -0.615%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.80%E -0.766%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 14:01
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.36%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.66%EV -1.92%E -0.615%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.98%EV -8.66%E -2.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-19 22:55
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.86%E -0.924%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:08
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.23%EV -3.74%E -1.63%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.71%EV -4.43%E -1.45%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.07%EV -1.20%E -0.323%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-19 22:54
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.32%EV -5.37%E -1.78%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 19:05
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.46%E -1.54%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 22:49
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.01%EV -6.26%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.01%EV -6.26%E -2.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-19 22:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 22:05
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.00%E -2.00%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.01%EV -7.94%E -3.63%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.08%EV -7.25%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.90%EV -8.92%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 22:44
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.68%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-19 22:14
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.68%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-19 22:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 22:45
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:20
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:19
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:19
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -8.36%E -3.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -7.57%E -2.56%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 22:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 21:34
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 22:54
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.13%E -1.15%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 22:44
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.13%E -3.15%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 22:49
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.81%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -8.12%E -2.35%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 21:59
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 22:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.81%EV -10.04%E -4.69%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.81%EV -10.04%E -4.69%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.81%EV -10.04%E -4.69%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 22:19
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -9.76%E -3.39%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-19 21:59
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -10.70%E -3.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-19 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.91%EV -10.89%E -5.13%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.17%EV -10.70%E -3.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-19 22:15
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -6.79%E -1.94%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 22:49
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 22:23
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.45%E -2.78%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-19 22:04
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 18:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 18:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 22:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -12.27%E -4.38%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -13.45%E -4.14%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 22:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.74%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.53%EV -12.89%E -4.64%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.73%EV -12.65%E -3.86%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-19 22:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.76%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.66%EV -13.21%E -4.77%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -12.12%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-19 22:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.03%EV -14.25%E -6.98%K -13.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.18%EV -13.83%E -5.03%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -14.78%E -4.62%K -6.72%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-19 22:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-09-19 22:49
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.52%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-09-19 22:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-09-19 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.10%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-09-19 22:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.10%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-09-19 22:35
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.74%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.50%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.76%2.4%2026-09-19 22:49