The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlas v Puebla

2026-10-25 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlas (Local)

Prediction 54.16%1.85fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.86%54.15%54.23%55.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.691.691.7862.11%59.00%59.17%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 20.56%4.86fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.518%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.37%20.54%20.41%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.334.334.7725.64%23.08%23.09%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.374%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.18%25.31%25.36%26.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.654.0030.30%27.50%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlas (Local): 54.16%; Puebla (Visit): 20.56%; Draw: 25.28%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.33%EV -3.59%E -2.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV -7.50%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV +1.12%E +0.280%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.4%2026-10-19 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.33%EV -3.59%E -2.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV -7.50%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV +1.12%E +0.280%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.4%2026-10-19 12:29
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -4.13%E -2.33%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -2.36%E -0.497%K -0.630%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.94%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-19 14:20
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.89%EV -7.38%E -4.32%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.45%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -3.94%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-19 14:34
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.18%EV -8.46%E -5.01%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.45%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.94%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 14:34
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:29
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.20%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 12:30
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.92%E -4.66%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -6.46%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 15:39
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -7.92%E -4.66%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -6.46%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 15:39
GTbets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.84%E -3.98%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.74%EV -1.95%E -0.409%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.52%EV -6.72%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-19 15:35
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -6.30%E -3.64%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -7.73%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -7.38%E -4.32%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.73%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -9.00%E -5.36%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -15.72%E -3.83%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -7.73%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-19 12:30
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -9.00%E -5.36%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -15.72%E -3.83%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -7.73%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-19 12:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -9.00%E -5.36%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -15.72%E -3.83%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -7.73%E -2.12%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -2.36%E -0.497%K -0.630%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.99%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 13:20
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -5.45%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.99%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-19 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.99%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-19 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.30%EV -10.09%E -6.08%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -17.78%E -4.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -8.99%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-19 12:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.91%EV -11.17%E -6.81%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -5.45%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.51%EV -10.76%E -3.05%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-19 13:20
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.52%E -3.29%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 14:30
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -13.67%E -3.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.52%E -3.29%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.40%EV -12.80%E -7.95%K -20.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.04%EV -19.83%E -5.09%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.56%EV -11.52%E -3.29%K -4.61%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-19 12:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.15%EV -12.25%E -7.56%K -19.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -17.78%E -4.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -14.05%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-19 14:55
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -11.00%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -16.58%E -5.02%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-19 14:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -11.00%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -16.58%E -5.02%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-19 14:18
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -11.00%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -16.58%E -5.02%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-19 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -9.55%E -5.72%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -11.00%E -2.54%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -16.58%E -5.02%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-19 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 53.24%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%11.1%2026-10-19 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15