The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Atlas v Puebla

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 23:00 UTC

Final: Atlas 4–3 Puebla

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlas (Local)

Prediction 59.24%1.69fair odd
EV -0.485%
Edge -0.289%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.97%59.20%59.08%61.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.581.571.6868.03%63.36%63.69%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puebla (Visit)

Prediction 17.63%5.67fair odd
EV +0.496%
Edge +0.087%
Kelly +0.106%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.95%17.71%17.75%20.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.035.005.7023.26%19.88%20.00%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.13%4.32fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%23.09%23.17%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.954.004.2228.17%25.32%25.00%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlas (Local): 59.24%; Puebla (Visit): 17.63%; Draw: 23.13%. For Puebla (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.496%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.21%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.90%EV +0.496%E +0.087%K +0.106%G +0.001%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.88%EV -2.61%E -0.619%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-25 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.86%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.95%EV +0.496%E +0.087%K +0.106%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 22:50
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%EV -1.27%E -0.226%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -2.84%E -0.676%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 22:38
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%EV -1.27%E -0.226%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -2.84%E -0.676%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 22:38
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%EV -1.27%E -0.226%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -2.84%E -0.676%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-25 22:38
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -7.59%E -4.87%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -1.27%E -0.226%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 22:45
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.78%E -5.70%K -16.26%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -1.27%E -0.226%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -2.84%E -0.676%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 22:49
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -5.82%E -3.66%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -3.03%E -0.551%K -0.673%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 22:40
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -3.03%E -0.551%K -0.673%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -2.84%E -0.676%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 22:45
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.48%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.54%EV -4.79%E -0.888%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -8.62%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 22:50
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -4.79%E -0.888%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -6.31%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -4.79%E -0.888%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -6.31%E -1.56%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 22:45
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.70%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -7.44%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 22:45
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -7.44%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 22:36
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -7.44%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-25 22:37
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -6.41%E -4.06%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -7.44%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.46%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 22:45
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -7.44%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 22:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -8.32%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -9.78%E -2.51%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 22:38
GTbets🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.25%EV -2.85%E -1.74%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.51%EV -9.02%E -1.75%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.24%EV -4.92%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 22:50
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.17%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 19.08%EV -11.32%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.75%EV -2.38%E -0.563%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 22:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.28%EV -0.485%E -0.289%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.25%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 22:38
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.28%EV -0.485%E -0.289%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.25%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 22:38
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -8.62%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 22:50
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.46%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-25 22:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.15%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -7.46%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 22:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.15%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -7.46%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 22:45
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 22:50
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 22:45
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 22:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 22:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -11.85%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 22:45
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -16.25%E -3.42%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -7.46%E -1.87%K -2.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 22:46
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.39%EV -11.15%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.44%EV -16.25%E -3.42%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.17%EV -12.55%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-25 22:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.85%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -17.13%E -3.65%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.45%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-25 22:45
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.25%EV -3.45%E -2.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 22:38
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.13%EV -8.19%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -18.90%E -4.11%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-25 22:36
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.11%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -20.66%E -4.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 22:38
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.11%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -20.66%E -4.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 22:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.11%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -20.66%E -4.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -13.25%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 22:38
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.14%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -22.42%E -5.10%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.82%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-25 22:38
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 55.97%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.91%EV -24.19%E -5.62%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.12%EV -17.87%E -5.04%K -7.01%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-25 22:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.04%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%1.1%2026-10-25 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41%1.4%2026-10-25 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41%1.4%2026-10-25 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.41%1.4%2026-10-25 22:50
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.73%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-10-25 22:45
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51%2.1%2026-10-25 22:45