The School of Odds

América v Santos Laguna

2026-08-02 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

América (Local)

Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -13.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.79%68.13%68.14%69.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.3977%74%74%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Santos Laguna (Visit)

Prediction 12.37%8.09fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.153%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.79%12.35%12.36%14.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.257.267.208.0016%14%14%13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.44%5.15fair odd
EV -0.878%
Edge -0.172%
Kelly -0.214%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.04%19.52%19.51%21.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.624.705.1024%22%21%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.40%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.66%EV -8.49%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -8.65%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 22:10
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 67.40%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.66%EV -8.49%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -8.65%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 19:35
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -5.89%E -4.27%K -15.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.07%E -0.134%K -0.153%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -2.82%E -0.564%K -0.705%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 19:35
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.57%E -4.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -7.26%E -0.967%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.68%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-20 22:10
Fanatics1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -1.07%E -0.134%K -0.153%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -2.82%E -0.564%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 19:35
Marathon Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -7.26%E -0.967%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -7.68%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-20 19:35
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.44%E -1.92%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -18.37%E -4.37%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 21:00
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.44%E -1.92%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -18.37%E -4.37%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 21:00
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.44%E -1.92%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -18.37%E -4.37%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 22:10
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -13.44%E -1.92%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -18.37%E -4.37%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-20 22:10
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -7.93%E -5.88%K -22.66%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV -4.16%E -0.537%K -0.617%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -2.82%E -0.564%K -0.705%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 19:35
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 67.48%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.01%EV -14.68%E -2.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.51%EV -10.60%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-20 19:35
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 65.79%EV -9.30%E -6.99%K -28.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.00%EV -22.71%E -3.63%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.21%EV -15.84%E -3.66%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-20 19:35
FanDuel1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.98%E -7.56%K -31.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -7.26%E -0.967%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.04%EV -0.878%E -0.172%K -0.214%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-20 19:34
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -11.34%E -8.72%K -37.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.44%E -1.92%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -7.68%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-20 19:32
Betclic (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 67.39%EV -11.34%E -8.72%K -37.81%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.70%EV -14.68%E -2.13%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.91%EV -14.48%E -3.29%K -4.26%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-20 19:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.