Language:English
América v Guadalajara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
América (Local)
Prediction 35.98%2.78fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.57%36.14%35.93%37.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.552.562.7042.02%39.15%39.06%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guadalajara (Visit)
Prediction 37.55%2.66fair odd
EV -0.129%
Edge -0.049%
Kelly -0.078%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.39%37.56%37.49%39.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.452.6643.48%40.73%40.82%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.396%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.72%26.31%26.58%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.403.8232.26%29.01%29.41%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América (Local): 35.98%; Guadalajara (Visit): 37.55%; Draw: 26.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -3.56%E -1.33%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV +1.12%E +0.292%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 03:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -3.56%E -1.33%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV +1.12%E +0.292%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 02:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV +0.587%E +0.154%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.84%E -1.05%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.58%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV +0.322%E +0.085%K +0.115%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.33%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.55%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.12%EV -0.472%E -0.126%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 02:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.13%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.13%EV -2.38%E -0.916%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -0.737%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -0.737%E -0.196%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 03:08 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -2.06%E -0.557%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-20 03:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 35.96%EV -7.88%E -3.08%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -8.76%E -3.61%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.15%EV -6.82%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 03:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.49%EV -4.28%E -1.61%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.61%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.90%EV -7.09%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.64%E -1.75%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 02:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 03:07 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -4.64%E -1.75%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 02:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -7.35%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-20 03:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.12%EV -4.28%E -1.61%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.12%EV -0.129%E -0.049%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -8.41%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 03:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.26%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.26%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 03:13 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 03:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -2.38%E -0.916%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-20 02:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -11.32%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -10.64%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-20 03:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -13.64%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-20 03:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -6.44%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -10.64%E -4.47%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-20 02:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.03%EV -10.76%E -4.34%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.03%EV -10.76%E -4.34%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.03%EV -10.76%E -4.34%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -8.01%E -3.27%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.20%EV -11.84%E -4.83%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.50%EV -8.76%E -3.61%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -13.64%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.52%EV -9.89%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.93%EV -13.97%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-20 03:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 35.96%EV -14.36%E -6.03%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -11.77%E -5.01%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.61%EV -17.94%E -5.79%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-20 03:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.29% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.31% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.98% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.29% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54% | 3.1% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.29% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.17% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54% | 3.1% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.05% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.05% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 34.30% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.47% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23% | 13.0% | 2026-09-20 03:19 |