The School of Odds

América v Atlético San Luis

2026-08-16 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

América (Local)

Prediction 59.02%1.69fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -3.48%
Kelly -9.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.60%59.02%59.64%60.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.471.551.571.6068.03%64.48%63.69%62.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atlético San Luis (Visit)

Prediction 18.15%5.51fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -0.722%
Kelly -0.890%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.55%18.15%18.17%19.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.914.785.3022.22%20.36%20.94%18.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.64%22.84%22.19%24.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.894.3027.78%25.60%25.71%23.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -4.73%E -0.902%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -1.80%E -0.418%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 11:40
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -5.57%E -3.48%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.15%EV -5.82%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -4.73%E -0.902%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -2.94%E -0.692%K -0.905%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:40
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.81%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -17.78%E -4.94%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:35
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.81%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -17.78%E -4.94%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:40
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.81%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -17.78%E -4.94%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:35
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -7.34%E -4.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -13.81%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -17.78%E -4.94%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-26 11:35
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.81%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -3.83%E -0.722%K -0.890%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -1.80%E -0.418%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:38
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -9.27%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 11:36
LeoVegas1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -9.70%E -6.34%K -18.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -12.90%E -2.69%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 11:50
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 57.69%EV -11.48%E -7.65%K -22.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -18.34%E -4.08%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -14.36%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-26 11:40
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 58.65%EV -13.25%E -9.01%K -28.18%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.54%EV -15.62%E -3.36%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.81%EV -13.67%E -3.62%K -4.92%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.