Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Waterford FC v Dundalk

Inicio: 2026-09-11 18:45 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 1–1 Dundalk

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Waterford FC (Local)

Predicción 37.78%2.65momio equitativo
EV +0.121%
Ventaja +0.046%
Kelly +0.073%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.86%37.69%37.80%38.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.472.452.6544.44%40.50%40.82%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Dundalk (Visitante)

Predicción 36.72%2.72momio equitativo
EV -3.44%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.38%36.82%36.71%38.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.442.402.6345.45%40.99%41.67%38.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.50%3.92momio equitativo
EV -0.543%
Ventaja -0.139%
Kelly -0.187%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.00%25.49%25.49%26.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.573.603.9030.77%28.02%27.78%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Waterford FC (Local): 37.78%; Dundalk (Visitante): 36.72%; Empate: 25.50%. Para Waterford FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.647. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.650, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.121%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +0.121%E +0.046%K +0.073%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 10:00
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.28%EV -3.66%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.03%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -1.82%E -0.472%K -0.638%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-07 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.98%EV -3.66%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.78%EV -15.55%E -6.76%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -3.66%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -16.29%E -7.14%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.15%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-08 09:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -14.57%E -4.35%K -6.20%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-08 09:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -5.55%E -2.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -14.57%E -4.35%K -6.20%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-08 10:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.35%EV -6.30%E -2.54%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.18%EV -6.01%E -2.35%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.35%EV -6.30%E -2.54%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.18%EV -6.01%E -2.35%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:45
BetUS🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.35%EV -6.30%E -2.54%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.18%EV -6.01%E -2.35%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:45
BetAnything🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.35%EV -6.30%E -2.54%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.18%EV -6.01%E -2.35%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 14:50
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.68%E -2.70%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.31%EV -5.64%E -2.19%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.68%E -2.70%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.31%EV -5.64%E -2.19%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 14:45
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.51%EV -7.06%E -2.87%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.02%EV -3.44%E -1.31%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.47%EV -5.13%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 08:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -0.543%E -0.139%K -0.187%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 18:48
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:10
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -10.04%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.64%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -10.04%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.64%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 17:45
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 13:16
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.38%EV -7.47%E -2.97%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:09
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.38%EV -7.47%E -2.97%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 19:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.87%EV -7.44%E -3.03%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.84%EV -19.22%E -8.74%K -16.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.29%EV -17.12%E -5.27%K -7.61%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-08 10:00
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -4.54%E -1.74%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -6.92%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -4.54%E -1.74%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:25
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -10.04%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -3.09%E -0.814%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-07 17:43
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-08 07:40
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -3.09%E -0.814%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 17:45
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.04%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 23:35
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.21%E -3.28%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 08:45
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -9.32%E -3.89%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 18:15
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -10.08%E -4.24%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -12.61%E -5.30%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:50
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -10.08%E -4.24%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-07 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -10.08%E -4.24%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-07 20:45
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.53%EV -10.46%E -4.41%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.53%EV -10.46%E -4.41%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 23:25
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%EV -10.04%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -6.92%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 20:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.20%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 19:10
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.20%EV -13.10%E -5.70%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -13.72%E -5.84%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-07 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.94%EV -13.10%E -5.70%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.13%EV -13.72%E -5.84%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-06 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.61%EV -14.99%E -6.66%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.20%EV -11.88%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.18%EV -12.02%E -3.48%K -4.91%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-07 18:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 38.72%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 38.72%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%4.1%2026-09-09 14:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 38.72%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20