Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC v Bohemians

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 13:59 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 3–1 Bohemians

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC (Local)

Prediction 27.42%3.65fair odd
EV +0.082%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.031%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%27.26%27.41%28.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.413.403.6531.75%29.28%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bohemians (Visit)

Prediction 46.60%2.15fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.76%46.80%46.63%48.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0855.56%51.50%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV +0.007%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.65%25.94%25.96%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.8530.30%28.52%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 27.42%; Bohemians (Visit): 46.60%; Draw: 25.98%. For Waterford FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.647. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.650, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.082%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -11.92%E -6.31%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 14:10
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
BetRivers🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
betPARX🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV +0.082%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.38%E -6.59%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -1.29%E -0.358%K -0.496%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -13.78%E -7.45%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -2.66%E -0.749%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.98%EV -4.93%E -2.42%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -2.66%E -0.749%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -14.25%E -7.74%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 14:09
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -2.66%E -0.749%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.74%EV -14.25%E -7.74%K -16.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 14:09
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -1.29%E -0.340%K -0.461%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -4.03%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -16.11%E -8.95%K -20.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-08 14:10
1xBet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.88%EV -4.58%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.00%EV -7.26%E -3.65%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.13%EV -7.01%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.75%EV -3.99%E -1.94%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 13:55
BetAnything🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.40%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.75%EV -3.99%E -1.94%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Pinnacle🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.96%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.06%E -1.47%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.79%EV -3.11%E -0.834%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.85%EV -7.26%E -3.65%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -7.01%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 13:55
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -6.79%E -3.40%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 13:34
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.79%E -3.40%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 13:40
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.79%E -3.40%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 13:54
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 13:44
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 13:54
BetUS🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 13:45
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -6.77%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 13:39
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.14%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -6.79%E -3.40%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:45
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.14%E -2.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.12%EV -6.79%E -3.40%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -8.19%E -4.16%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 13:25
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -5.19%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 13:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 13:35
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 13:55
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.52%E -2.88%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -8.66%E -4.42%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 13:40
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:39
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:40
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.89%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:40
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -5.86%E -2.90%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -12.98%E -3.87%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 13:55
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 13:35
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -9.12%E -4.68%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -14.28%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.58%EV -12.26%E -3.83%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.46%EV -11.45%E -6.03%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -13.63%E -4.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.08%EV -9.59%E -4.94%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -9.08%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 13:40
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.75%EV -13.63%E -4.33%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.76%EV -10.99%E -5.75%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -14.28%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-09 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.65I 27.40%NM 27.28%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-08-09 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-09 13:55

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