Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic v Waterford FC

2026-08-28 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic (Local)

Prediction 69.15%1.45fair odd
EV -5.96%
Edge -4.38%
Kelly -16.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.78%69.18%69.11%70.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.331.331.3679.37%75.36%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Waterford FC (Visit)

Prediction 12.98%7.71fair odd
EV +7.06%
Edge +0.855%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 8.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.52%12.97%12.99%14.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.137.508.2516.95%14.02%13.33%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.88%5.59fair odd
EV -0.069%
Edge -0.012%
Kelly -0.015%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.79%17.84%17.90%19.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.914.905.5922.73%20.38%20.41%17.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: St Patricks Athletic (Local): 69.15%; Waterford FC (Visit): 12.98%; Draw: 17.88%. For Waterford FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.71. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.25, producing a positive expected value of +7.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -6.65%E -4.93%K -19.01%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +7.06%E +0.855%K +0.973%G +0.069%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 21:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.70%EV -8.73%E -6.61%K -27.27%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.52%EV +5.11%E +0.631%K +0.720%G +0.037%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 20:20
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -8.03%E -6.04%K -24.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +3.81%E +0.477%K +0.545%G +0.021%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 20:24
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:50
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:50
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:49
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -5.96%E -4.38%K -16.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:49
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.03%E -6.04%K -24.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 20:19
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -8.03%E -6.04%K -24.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -12.40%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 21:14
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.86%EV -9.42%E -7.19%K -30.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.94%EV -8.83%E -1.73%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 21:15
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 21:10
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -2.68%E -0.357%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -17.77%E -3.86%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-21 21:14
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.29%EV -11.49%E -8.98%K -41.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.23%EV -5.92%E -0.816%K -0.947%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.48%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 21:14
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.39%EV -7.34%E -5.48%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.51%EV -11.51%E -2.33%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 20:35
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.39%EV -7.34%E -5.48%K -21.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.51%EV -11.51%E -2.33%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 20:35
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.05%EV -8.73%E -6.61%K -27.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -15.98%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -17.77%E -3.86%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-21 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -10.80%E -8.37%K -37.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -19.55%E -4.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-21 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -10.80%E -8.37%K -37.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -9.16%E -1.31%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -19.55%E -4.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-21 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.65%E -4.93%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 13.68%EV -10.98%E -1.60%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.59I 17.89%NM 16.79%EV -0.069%E -0.012%K -0.015%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 21:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 67.89%EV -12.88%E -10.22%K -49.52%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.67%EV -12.41%E -1.84%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.44%EV -21.34%E -4.85%K -6.28%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-21 18:49
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.27%EV -6.65%E -4.93%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -15.65%E -2.41%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 21:09
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.81%EV -10.11%E -7.78%K -33.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.90%EV -18.90%E -3.02%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.30%EV -19.55%E -4.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-21 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.29%EV -7.34%E -5.48%K -21.60%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -19.54%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.29%EV -7.34%E -5.48%K -21.60%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -19.54%E -3.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 66.78%EV -11.49%E -8.98%K -41.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.01%EV -20.84%E -3.42%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.21%EV -20.45%E -4.60%K -5.93%G +0.000%17.0%2026-08-21 20:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 67.06%EV -9.42%E -7.19%K -30.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.64%EV -22.14%E -3.69%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.73%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-21 20:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 66.97%EV -10.80%E -8.37%K -37.24%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.64%EV -23.44%E -3.97%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.38%EV -15.98%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-21 20:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-21 20:40

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