Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic v Galway United

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic (Local)

Prediction 54.93%1.82fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.96%54.82%54.99%56.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.691.7762.50%58.99%59.17%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galway United (Visit)

Prediction 18.54%5.40fair odd
EV +6.39%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 5.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.27%18.69%18.42%20.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.784.805.7423.26%20.94%20.83%17.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.53%3.77fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.497%
Kelly -0.681%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%26.49%26.58%28.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.403.7033.33%29.23%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Patricks Athletic (Local): 54.93%; Galway United (Visit): 18.54%; Draw: 26.53%. For Galway United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.26%EV -8.81%E -5.31%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.27%EV +6.39%E +1.11%K +1.35%G +0.086%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-02 19:39
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -8.26%E -4.95%K -12.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +0.090%E +0.017%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 19:20
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.03%EV -6.06%E -3.54%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -1.76%E -0.333%K -0.410%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-02 19:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -1.76%E -0.333%K -0.410%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-02 19:19
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.25%EV -4.96%E -2.87%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -2.69%E -0.513%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.87%EV -6.61%E -3.89%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.40%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -4.96%E -2.87%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.78%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-02 19:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -4.96%E -2.87%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.78%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-02 19:20
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.72%EV -7.16%E -4.24%K -10.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -1.84%E -0.497%K -0.681%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-02 19:20
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.71%E -4.59%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 19:37
BetUS🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.71%E -4.59%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 19:39
BetAnything🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.71%E -4.59%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.49%EV -7.16%E -4.24%K -10.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:19
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-02 19:19
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.26%E -4.95%K -12.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-02 19:38
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.30%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-02 19:39
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -11.01%E -6.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -7.32%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-02 19:20
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.46%EV -6.61%E -3.89%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -8.25%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-02 19:19
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.46%EV -6.61%E -3.89%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -8.25%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.84%EV -8.47%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-02 19:19
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.44%EV -7.71%E -4.59%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -9.18%E -1.87%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-02 19:19
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.64%EV -10.10%E -2.08%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-02 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:19
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:20
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.36%E -5.67%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:20
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -11.01%E -6.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.46%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-02 19:20
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.61%E -3.89%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-02 19:29
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.89%EV -12.10%E -7.57%K -20.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.49%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-02 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.89%EV -12.10%E -7.57%K -20.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.49%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-02 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.42%EV -7.71%E -4.59%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -12.89%E -2.74%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.14%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-02 19:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 53.96%EV -11.55%E -7.18%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.89%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.15%EV -15.10%E -4.72%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-02 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.63%EV -11.01%E -6.79%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.95%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.42%EV -20.41%E -6.80%K -10.20%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-02 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:10
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:10
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:10
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -2.77%E -1.56%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 19:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.70%EV -9.91%E -6.04%K -15.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.29%EV -11.12%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-02 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.96%EV -3.86%E -2.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -19.37%E -4.45%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -11.12%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-02 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.12%EV -4.96%E -2.87%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -11.12%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.12%EV -4.96%E -2.87%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -11.12%E -3.32%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-02 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.71%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-03-02 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.71%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-03-02 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.71%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-03-02 19:34
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.51%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-03-02 19:39