The School of Odds

Galway United v Sligo Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00 UTC

Final: Galway United 3–2 Sligo Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 53.61%1.87fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.80%53.64%53.69%55.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.731.7961%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sligo Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 21.98%4.55fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.742%
Kelly -0.961%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.86%22.02%21.94%23.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.144.204.4026%24%24%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.591%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%24.34%24.38%25.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.654.0029%27%27%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.04%E -2.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.55%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 15:45
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 15:45
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.71%EV -9.64%E -2.35%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 15:53
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.37%E -0.591%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 15:44
LowVig.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:54
BetOnline.ag1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:55
BetAnything1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:55
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:54
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 15:54
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 15:50
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.62%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -7.74%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 15:54
TABtouch1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
BetRivers1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:05
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:53
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:54
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -7.26%E -4.20%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:44
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 52.56%EV -7.26%E -4.20%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 15:44
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:44
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 15:05
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.12%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 15:54
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 15:44
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-11 15:44
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 15:45
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 15:44
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-11 15:49
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 15:04
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 15:54
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-11 15:39
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 53.30%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-11 15:44
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 53.02%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -15.36%E -3.99%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-11 15:44
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.93%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -14.57%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-11 15:05
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -11.55%E -7.00%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 11:30
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 52.78%EV -11.55%E -7.00%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -14.57%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-11 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:54
Matchbook1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55