Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United v Sligo Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00 UTC

Final: Galway United 3–2 Sligo Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 53.61%1.87fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.80%53.64%53.69%55.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.731.7960.61%58.16%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sligo Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 21.98%4.55fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.742%
Kelly -0.961%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.86%22.02%21.94%23.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.144.204.4025.97%24.13%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.591%
Kelly -0.788%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%24.34%24.38%25.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.654.0028.57%27.02%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galway United (Local): 53.61%; Sligo Rovers (Visit): 21.98%; Draw: 24.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.04%E -2.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.55%EV -4.56%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 15:45
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -5.12%E -2.89%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.71%EV -9.64%E -2.35%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 15:53
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.49%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.37%E -0.591%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 15:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:55
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 15:55
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:54
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 15:54
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -6.19%E -3.54%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.62%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -7.74%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 15:54
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:05
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 15:04
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:53
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.96%EV -6.72%E -3.86%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-11 15:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -7.26%E -4.20%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:44
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.56%EV -7.26%E -4.20%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 15:44
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:44
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.56%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -8.47%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 15:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.80%E -4.53%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 15:05
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.12%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -5.46%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 15:54
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 15:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.26%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-11 15:44
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.25%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 15:44
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-11 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 15:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -13.35%E -3.76%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.87%E -5.22%K -12.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 15:44
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.69%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 15:54
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -10.48%E -6.27%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-11 15:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.30%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -12.13%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-11 15:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.02%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -15.36%E -3.99%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -10.91%E -2.99%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-11 15:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.93%EV -11.01%E -6.63%K -16.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -14.57%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-11 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -11.55%E -7.00%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.81%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 11:30
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.78%EV -11.55%E -7.00%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -14.57%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-11 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:54
Matchbook1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-07-11 15:55

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.