Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United v Shelbourne Dublin

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:44 UTC

Final: Galway United 1–1 Shelbourne Dublin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 35.77%2.80fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.460%
Kelly -0.721%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.22%35.79%35.71%36.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7641.67%38.92%38.46%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shelbourne Dublin (Visit)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.79%36.35%36.37%37.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.522.6642.55%39.80%39.60%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.81%3.60fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.88%27.86%27.91%29.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.273.303.5032.79%30.62%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galway United (Local): 35.77%; Shelbourne Dublin (Visit): 36.42%; Draw: 27.81%. For Galway United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.76, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.87%EV -1.27%E -0.460%K -0.721%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.16%EV -5.68%E -2.19%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 18:35
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -2.66%E -0.760%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-28 18:20
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 18:34
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -5.92%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -6.28%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -4.59%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 18:40
BetAnything🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -6.28%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -4.59%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 18:40
BetUS🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -6.28%E -2.40%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -4.59%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -3.13%E -1.18%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -3.49%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 18:40
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 18:34
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 18:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 18:35
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 18:35
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -6.99%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-28 18:35
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -7.71%E -2.99%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -6.04%E -2.34%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-28 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 18:40
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 18:35
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 18:40
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -8.78%E -3.44%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.87%EV -9.50%E -3.75%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.01%EV -5.68%E -2.19%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:39
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-28 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 18:20
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-28 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.45%EV -11.51%E -4.74%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -12.40%E -3.93%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 06:30
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -10.57%E -4.23%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-28 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.29%EV -11.29%E -4.55%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.47%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.24%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-28 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.29%EV -11.29%E -4.55%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.47%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.24%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-28 06:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-28 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -12.36%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.31%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -13.79%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-28 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 35.33%EV -13.07%E -5.38%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.53%EV -14.42%E -6.14%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.15%EV -15.18%E -4.98%K -7.40%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-28 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -14.15%E -5.89%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-28 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.27%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.74%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-08-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.43%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-08-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.34%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.84%1.2%2026-08-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.51%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-08-28 18:40