Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dundalk v Sligo Rovers

Inicio: 2026-07-31 18:46 UTC

Final: Dundalk 1–1 Sligo Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dundalk (Local)

Predicción 61.43%1.63momio equitativo
EV -4.17%
Ventaja -2.67%
Kelly -7.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.78%61.37%61.33%63.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.501.501.5671.43%66.83%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sligo Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 17.08%5.85momio equitativo
EV +2.50%
Ventaja +0.416%
Kelly +0.500%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.44%17.05%17.24%18.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.425.406.0020.83%18.46%18.52%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.49%4.65momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -0.737%
Kelly -0.948%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.78%21.59%21.43%22.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.224.204.5025.64%23.72%23.81%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dundalk (Local): 61.43%; Sligo Rovers (Visitante): 17.08%; Empate: 21.49%. Para Sligo Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.85. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.50%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.85%EV -6.62%E -4.36%K -12.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -3.32%E -0.737%K -0.948%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-31 17:39
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +2.50%E +0.416%K +0.500%G +0.012%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 18:04
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.00%EV -10.92%E -7.53%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -0.919%E -0.158%K -0.191%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-31 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.01%EV -11.54%E -8.01%K -26.22%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.64%EV -0.919%E -0.158%K -0.191%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -8.69%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-31 18:05
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.54%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.64%EV -1.43%E -0.248%K -0.300%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -5.47%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-31 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -9.08%E -6.14%K -18.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -6.54%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-31 17:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -9.08%E -6.14%K -18.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -8.69%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-31 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.93%EV -12.15%E -8.50%K -28.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-31 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.93%EV -12.15%E -8.50%K -28.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -1.77%E -0.308%K -0.373%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-31 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.84%EV -14.00%E -10.00%K -34.99%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.71%EV -4.34%E -0.774%K -0.942%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.46%EV -11.91%E -2.91%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-31 18:05
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.35%EV -5.39%E -3.50%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.47%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.82%EV -7.24%E -4.79%K -14.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -5.47%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -9.08%E -6.14%K -18.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -8.69%E -2.04%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-31 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -11.54%E -8.01%K -26.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -6.04%E -1.10%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-31 15:59
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -4.78%E -3.08%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.20%EV -7.24%E -1.33%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.56%EV -11.05%E -2.67%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -7.75%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-31 18:43
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.85%EV -6.62%E -4.36%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.13%EV -7.75%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-31 18:39
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.03%EV -4.17%E -2.67%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.67%EV -9.46%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-31 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -4.78%E -3.08%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.46%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-31 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -4.78%E -3.08%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.46%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-31 18:20
BetAnything🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.19%EV -4.78%E -3.08%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.46%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-31 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -9.46%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -7.61%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 18:15
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -10.31%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -6.97%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 18:19
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.55%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -10.31%E -1.96%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.91%E -2.91%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-31 18:19
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -6.62%E -4.36%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -12.02%E -2.33%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.25%EV -6.54%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 17:35
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.81%EV -6.62%E -4.36%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -12.02%E -2.33%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.25%EV -6.54%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-31 17:34
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-31 17:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -5.47%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-31 18:44
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-31 18:19
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 18:04
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 18:39
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -6.62%E -4.36%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-31 17:19
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.85%E -5.23%K -15.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-31 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -9.76%E -2.32%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-31 18:35
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.51%EV -10.92%E -7.53%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -14.59%E -2.92%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-31 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.31%EV -8.47%E -5.68%K -17.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.03%EV -16.29%E -3.33%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -16.21%E -4.16%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-31 18:45
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-31 18:39
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-31 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-31 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -6.01%E -3.93%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -14.06%E -3.51%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-31 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.07%EV -9.69%E -6.60%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -18.00%E -3.75%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -11.91%E -2.91%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-31 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.37%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.10%0.8%2026-07-31 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.59I 62.89%NM 62.37%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.10%0.8%2026-07-31 18:40
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.67%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.93%1.6%2026-07-31 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.38%1.7%2026-07-31 18:45