Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Derry City v Shamrock Rovers

Início: 2026-08-30 15:00 UTC

Final: Derry City 3–3 Shamrock Rovers

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Derry City (Local)

Previsão 34.21%2.92odd justa
EV -2.51%
Vantagem -0.880%
Kelly -1.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.22%34.20%34.24%36.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.382.652.642.8542.02%37.80%37.88%35.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shamrock Rovers (Visitante)

Previsão 37.30%2.68odd justa
EV -1.15%
Vantagem -0.433%
Kelly -0.696%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.08%37.31%37.26%39.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.492.482.6544.44%40.20%40.40%37.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.49%3.51odd justa
EV -2.85%
Vantagem -0.836%
Kelly -1.18%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.41

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.51%28.49%28.50%29.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.193.203.4133.90%31.40%31.25%29.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Derry City (Local): 34.21%; Shamrock Rovers (Visitante): 37.30%; Empate: 28.49%. Para Shamrock Rovers (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.68. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.65, com valor esperado de -1.15%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -2.51%E -0.880%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -12.34%E -5.25%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 14:45
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.22%E -1.51%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:45
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.62%EV -4.90%E -1.76%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.16%EV -3.39%E -1.31%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.22%EV -2.85%E -0.836%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 14:55
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -5.93%E -2.16%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.88%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -3.13%E -0.922%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -5.93%E -2.16%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -4.88%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -4.56%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 14:55
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -5.93%E -2.16%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.66%EV -7.12%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -5.93%E -2.16%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.32%EV -6.27%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.74%EV -4.51%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.32%EV -6.27%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.74%EV -4.51%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:55
BetAnything🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.32%EV -6.27%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.74%EV -4.51%E -1.76%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -6.96%E -2.56%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.73%EV -5.25%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -8.26%E -2.57%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:55
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.63%EV -6.96%E -2.56%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.33%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:45
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.63%EV -6.96%E -2.56%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.33%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:45
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:45
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:45
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 14:45
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -7.64%E -2.83%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -14.53%E -4.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 14:45
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -9.35%E -3.53%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -9.35%E -3.53%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -9.35%E -3.53%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:45
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.35%E -3.53%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -8.61%E -3.51%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -9.35%E -3.53%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -16.07%E -7.14%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-30 14:45
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -10.03%E -3.82%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -11.22%E -4.71%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -10.03%E -3.82%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -11.22%E -4.71%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 14:45
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.38%E -3.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.98%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 14:55
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.38%E -3.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -10.38%E -3.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 14:50
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -10.38%E -3.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -11.59%E -4.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.89%EV -10.38%E -3.96%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.47%EV -11.59%E -4.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 14:45
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -1.15%E -0.433%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.41%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.47%E -4.36%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -10.26%E -3.26%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.26%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.90%EV -12.34%E -5.25%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 14:45
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.47%EV -11.06%E -4.25%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.03%EV -12.34%E -5.25%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -15.96%E -5.41%K -8.18%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-30 14:50
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -15.17%E -6.11%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -4.88%E -1.91%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.68%E -3.77%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.93%EV -16.19%E -6.61%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.21%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-30 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.12%EV -16.88%E -6.94%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.12%EV -16.88%E -6.94%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%EV -13.11%E -4.30%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.89%EV -18.59%E -7.81%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 35.15%EV -9.35%E -3.85%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.96%EV -15.96%E -5.41%K -8.18%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-30 14:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.57%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.42%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%1.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.42%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%1.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.58%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.11%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.32%1.8%2026-08-30 14:55