Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeju United FC v FC Seoul

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 05:00 UTC

Final: Jeju United FC 2–1 FC Seoul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeju United FC (Local)

Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd
EV +2.93%
Edge +0.792%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.82%27.62%27.90%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.393.303.7032.79%29.53%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Seoul (Visit)

Prediction 42.54%2.35fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%42.77%42.53%47.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.082.102.2853.48%48.03%47.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.667%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%29.62%29.58%31.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.153.3034.48%31.95%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jeju United FC (Local): 27.82%; FC Seoul (Visit): 42.54%; Draw: 29.64%. For Jeju United FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV +2.93%E +0.792%K +1.09%G +0.032%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.96%EV -16.19%E -8.22%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -2.20%E -0.667%K -0.956%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 01:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV +1.54%E +0.422%K +0.581%G +0.009%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.11%EV -17.89%E -9.27%K -19.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -3.68%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 01:29
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV +1.54%E +0.422%K +0.581%G +0.009%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.11%EV -17.89%E -9.27%K -19.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -3.68%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 01:29
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:30
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -18.74%E -9.81%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 01:29
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV +0.148%E +0.041%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.27%EV -19.59%E -10.37%K -22.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 01:30
Pinnacle🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.49%EV -2.08%E -0.590%K -0.825%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.45%EV -3.00%E -1.31%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.06%EV -4.57%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 04:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.75%EV -5.55%E -2.50%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.65%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 04:09
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.75%EV -5.55%E -2.50%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.65%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 04:09
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -12.57%E -4.26%K -6.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 03:59
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.99%EV -20.44%E -10.93%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.90%EV -6.65%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-09 01:29
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.05%EV -3.75%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -7.68%E -3.54%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.81%EV -6.94%E -2.21%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -3.75%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.69%EV -6.94%E -2.21%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 04:00
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -3.68%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 04:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.27%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 04:13
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.27%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 04:09
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -3.68%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 04:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 04:14
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -3.68%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 02:34
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 03:59
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 03:59
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.99%EV -6.83%E -3.12%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -9.61%E -3.15%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 03:54
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 01:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 02:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 27.78%EV -9.03%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.25%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.98%EV -10.20%E -3.37%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 04:12
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.16%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 04:13
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -4.27%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 04:00
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 04:14
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.40%E -2.91%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 04:14
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 02:33
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -12.78%E -6.24%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-09 00:33
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 04:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 03:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 03:59
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 03:59
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 03:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -12.78%E -6.24%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -12.57%E -4.26%K -6.45%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-09 04:14
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -8.13%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-09 02:34
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.57%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 42.95%EV -15.34%E -7.71%K -15.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.47%EV -14.05%E -4.85%K -7.40%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-09 02:24
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -15.15%E -4.97%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -10.66%E -5.07%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -11.09%E -3.70%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-09 03:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-09 04:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-09 03:59
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-09 03:59
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-05-09 04:00
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-05-09 04:14