Language:English
Incheon United v Sangju Sangmu FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Incheon United (Local)
Prediction 42.07%2.38fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.59%42.07%42.06%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.152.152.3450.76%46.53%46.51%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sangju Sangmu FC (Visit)
Prediction 28.13%3.56fair odd
EV -0.998%
Edge -0.284%
Kelly -0.396%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%28.15%28.08%28.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.233.203.5232.79%30.92%31.25%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.52%29.78%29.85%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.073.103.2034.48%32.60%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Incheon United (Local): 42.07%; Sangju Sangmu FC (Visit): 28.13%; Draw: 29.80%. For Sangju Sangmu FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -0.998%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.40%EV -1.55%E -0.663%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.33%EV -3.81%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.27%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.59%EV -1.55%E -0.663%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.59%EV -1.55%E -0.663%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.34%E -2.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.34%E -2.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.78%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.34%E -2.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.34%E -2.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -5.34%E -2.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.26%EV -5.76%E -2.57%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.30%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.82%EV -6.18%E -2.77%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -6.62%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 10:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.44%E -3.38%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.31%EV -7.86%E -3.59%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.95%EV -0.998%E -0.284%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV -4.93%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -8.28%E -3.80%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.54%E -4.44%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -9.97%E -4.66%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.65%E -5.55%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.51%EV -11.65%E -5.55%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -9.44%E -2.93%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-16 10:18 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -11.65%E -5.55%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.65%E -5.55%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -11.65%E -5.55%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -13.57%E -4.68%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-16 10:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.08%EV -12.91%E -6.24%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 29.83%EV -12.98%E -4.44%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -13.33%E -6.47%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -13.75%E -6.71%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-16 10:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -13.75%E -6.71%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.61%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.22%EV -15.01%E -7.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.16%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 43.43%EV -17.12%E -8.69%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.05%EV -14.22%E -4.66%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 10:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.60% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.19% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.40% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27% | 1.7% | 2026-08-16 10:20 |