The School of Odds

Incheon United v FC Anyang

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 10:30 UTC

Final: Incheon United 0–1 FC Anyang

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Incheon United (Local)

Prediction 43.32%2.31fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%43.44%43.32%46.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.882.072.102.2353%48%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FC Anyang (Visit)

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV +0.526%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.188%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.23%26.39%26.61%28.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.503.8031%29%29%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV -0.256%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.87%30.17%30.07%31.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.853.073.053.3035%33%33%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -3.40%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV +0.526%E +0.138%K +0.188%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.19%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-12 10:20
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -0.797%E -0.213%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:19
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -0.797%E -0.213%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:20
1xBet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.35%EV -6.43%E -2.98%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -3.44%E -0.943%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.00%EV -8.72%E -2.89%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 10:25
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.57%EV -7.29%E -3.41%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -3.44%E -0.943%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.88%EV -8.72%E -2.89%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-12 10:25
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -14.66%E -7.44%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -3.44%E -0.943%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -0.256%E -0.078%K -0.111%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 10:20
Bovada2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -7.29%E -3.41%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -3.44%E -0.943%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 10:24
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:10
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:49
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 10:24
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -15.53%E -7.96%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -4.77%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -1.77%E -0.544%K -0.785%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 10:14
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 10:09
LiveScore Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 46.45%EV -15.96%E -8.23%K -16.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.16%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 10:14
Unibet1.94I 51.55%NM 46.45%EV -15.96%E -8.23%K -16.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.16%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 10:10
Virgin Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 46.45%EV -15.96%E -8.23%K -16.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.16%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 10:14
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:14
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:10
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:14
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:14
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:14
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:15
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 46.58%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.09%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 10:14
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.41%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 10:20
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.41%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 09:43
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.41%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 10:19
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 46.41%EV -16.39%E -8.49%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -7.41%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-12 10:14
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -7.41%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-12 09:50
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -18.56%E -9.87%K -21.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -8.73%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.87%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-12 10:10
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 10:05
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 10:24
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 08:54
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 10:24
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -4.70%E -2.13%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 10:24
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -8.16%E -3.85%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 09:44
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.13%EV -8.16%E -3.85%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 09:45
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 09:49
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -13.36%E -6.68%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.06%E -2.96%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 10:04
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -11.38%E -3.40%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 10:20
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.78%EV -11.91%E -3.58%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 10:03
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.70%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-12 09:45
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -9.03%E -4.30%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -12.70%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-12 08:50
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.70%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-12 08:54
NetBet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.33%EV -13.36%E -6.68%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.26%EV -12.70%E -3.85%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.41%EV -13.86%E -4.86%K -7.49%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-12 10:24
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.35%E -4.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 10:04
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.35%E -4.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 10:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.35%E -4.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 10:04
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -6.86%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.35%E -4.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 10:04
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -11.19%E -5.46%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -15.35%E -4.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-12 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 45.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%0.1%2026-07-12 10:10
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.46%0.9%2026-07-12 10:24
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-07-12 10:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-07-12 10:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-07-12 10:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80%1.5%2026-07-12 10:24