The School of Odds
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Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vissel Kobe (Local)

Prediction 47.33%2.11fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.16%47.26%47.29%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.951.952.0353.76%51.28%51.28%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 25.18%3.97fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -0.625%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%25.26%25.23%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.603.9029.85%27.68%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.50%3.64fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -0.992%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.44%27.48%27.48%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.333.5131.25%30.11%30.08%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vissel Kobe (Local): 47.33%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 25.18%; Draw: 27.50%. For Nagoya Grampus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.64%EV -3.93%E -1.94%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -1.81%E -0.465%K -0.625%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.56%EV -3.48%E -0.992%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 05:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -5.59%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 05:50
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.51%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 05:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.26%E -2.81%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 05:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -6.30%E -3.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.59%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.51%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 05:54
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -6.30%E -3.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -6.51%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 03:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -6.77%E -3.44%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -5.84%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -7.61%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 05:49
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.11%E -2.22%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 05:50
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.11%E -2.22%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 05:50
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 05:45
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 05:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.63%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-11 05:45
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 03:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 02:55
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 02:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.71%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 03:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -9.13%E -4.76%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -5.13%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 05:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.60%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 05:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -11.03%E -5.87%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -7.88%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 05:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -11.50%E -6.15%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -9.36%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.26%E -2.81%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 05:23
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -11.97%E -6.44%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -15.66%E -4.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -9.26%E -2.81%K -4.02%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-11 05:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-04-11 05:50