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V-Varen Nagasaki v Kyoto Purple Sanga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)
Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.007%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%28.41%28.26%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5333.33%30.73%30.77%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)
Prediction 42.35%2.36fair odd
EV -0.479%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.355%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%42.16%42.44%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.182.3547.62%45.66%45.87%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.33%3.41fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.872%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.43%29.30%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.3433.33%32.11%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 28.32%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 42.35%; Draw: 29.33%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.531. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.530, with an expected value of -0.025%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.93%EV -0.025%E -0.007%K -0.010%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.81%EV -8.10%E -3.73%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -4.68%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.27%EV -0.592%E -0.169%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.92%EV -5.56%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.82%EV -5.85%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.27%EV -0.592%E -0.169%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.92%EV -5.56%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.82%EV -5.85%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 09:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.27%EV -0.592%E -0.169%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.92%EV -5.56%E -2.49%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.82%EV -5.85%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 09:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-09 09:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.57%EV -4.56%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.60%EV -4.29%E -1.90%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.83%EV -2.04%E -0.611%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.61%E -2.42%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 09:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -7.61%E -2.42%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 09:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -0.479%E -0.204%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -7.61%E -2.42%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 06:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -5.98%E -2.70%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.73%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.69%EV -9.80%E -4.60%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-09 09:32 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 09:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-09 09:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-09 09:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.21%E -0.974%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 08:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-09 09:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 09:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -10.79%E -3.42%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 06:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 06:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 06:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-09 06:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 09:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -13.62%E -4.47%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -4.71%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.61%E -2.42%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 08:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -4.71%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-09 08:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.19% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.19% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.19% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.40% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.53% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.86% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61% | 2.3% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.12% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.74% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14% | 3.1% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
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