The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Kyoto Purple Sanga

2026-08-09 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 32.62%3.07fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.46%32.68%32.62%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.802.9338.46%36.04%35.71%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit)

Prediction 38.38%2.61fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.94%38.44%38.38%39.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.352.5044.44%42.23%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.408%
Kelly -0.577%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%28.88%29.00%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4033.33%31.55%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 32.62%; Kyoto Purple Sanga (Visit): 38.38%; Draw: 29.00%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -1.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.93I 34.13%NM 32.59%EV -4.42%E -1.51%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.20%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.21%EV -5.16%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 11:14
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -5.40%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -5.98%E -2.44%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -1.39%E -0.408%K -0.577%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 11:29
Pinnacle2.90I 34.48%NM 32.70%EV -5.40%E -1.86%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.94%EV -4.06%E -1.62%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.36%EV -6.32%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 11:55
Marathon Bet2.86I 34.97%NM 32.62%EV -6.70%E -2.34%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV -6.36%E -2.61%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 11:00
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.66%E -3.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -9.82%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 11:30
Betclic (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.46%EV -11.92%E -4.42%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.61%EV -12.89%E -5.68%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.93%EV -12.12%E -4.00%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 10:54
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -13.56%E -5.12%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -11.74%E -5.10%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -10.09%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 11:09
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 32.83%EV -14.21%E -5.40%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.38%EV -13.66%E -6.07%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.79%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 12:25
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.24%EV -15.19%E -5.84%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.42%EV -13.66%E -6.07%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.34%EV -11.54%E -3.78%K -5.63%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-02 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.