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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Urawa Red Diamonds v Tokyo Verdy

Inicio: 2026-09-19 09:30 UTC

Final: Urawa Red Diamonds 3–1 Tokyo Verdy

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Urawa Red Diamonds (Local)

Predicción 51.79%1.93momio equitativo
EV -2.64%
Ventaja -1.40%
Kelly -3.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.71%51.89%51.79%54.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.801.801.8858.82%55.64%55.56%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tokyo Verdy (Visitante)

Predicción 21.02%4.76momio equitativo
EV +1.32%
Ventaja +0.273%
Kelly +0.345%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.58%20.94%21.06%22.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.324.284.8225.00%23.17%23.39%20.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.19%3.68momio equitativo
EV -3.47%
Ventaja -0.978%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.29%27.16%27.15%28.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.363.303.5530.77%29.78%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Urawa Red Diamonds (Local): 51.79%; Tokyo Verdy (Visitante): 21.02%; Empate: 27.19%. Para Tokyo Verdy (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.76. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.82, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.32%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.96%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.89%EV +1.32%E +0.273%K +0.345%G +0.005%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.15%EV -4.02%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-18 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%EV +0.897%E +0.187%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.94%EV -3.47%E -0.978%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 09:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%EV +0.897%E +0.187%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.94%EV -3.47%E -0.978%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 09:35
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%EV +0.897%E +0.187%K +0.236%G +0.002%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.94%EV -3.47%E -0.978%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-18 09:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -11.96%E -7.03%K -17.08%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -1.20%E -0.256%K -0.326%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 08:26
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -3.31%E -0.719%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 09:30
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.81%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.19%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 08:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-16 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 08:40
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 19:10
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 19:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -5.41%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 19:10
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.34%EV -3.67%E -1.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.61%EV -7.09%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.05%EV -4.02%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.51%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 12:20
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -7.51%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 12:18
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -7.51%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 12:25
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -8.33%E -4.71%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -7.51%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.83%E -1.38%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 12:18
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.89%EV -5.74%E -3.16%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -7.51%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 12:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.53%EV -11.44%E -6.69%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.65%EV -8.56%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-18 09:35
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -8.98%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 19:20
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.23%E -2.86%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -9.61%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.36%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -9.61%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.02%EV -6.46%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:14
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -7.82%E -4.39%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%EV -9.61%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-17 10:01
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.19%EV -7.82%E -4.39%K -10.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%EV -9.61%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-17 08:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.92%EV -10.92%E -6.35%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -10.66%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-17 09:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -2.64%E -1.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 09:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -2.64%E -1.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 09:41
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 09:40
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 12:20
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 12:19
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 12:25
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 12:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -11.71%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-17 12:23
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:40
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:41
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:41
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:41
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:40
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 09:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.77%EV -5.23%E -2.86%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.77%EV -5.23%E -2.86%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 09:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.77%EV -5.23%E -2.86%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 09:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -6.78%E -3.77%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.36%EV -8.85%E -5.03%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -7.55%E -2.22%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-17 08:39
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.37%E -5.35%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -15.92%E -3.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -11.63%E -3.58%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-18 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.25%EV -10.92%E -6.35%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -15.92%E -3.98%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.71%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-17 08:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.38%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18%3.1%2026-09-18 15:20
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.60%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.75%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%3.3%2026-09-18 15:30
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 51.89%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.53%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.58%3.6%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%3.8%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%3.8%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 52.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%3.8%2026-09-18 15:15