The School of Odds
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Shimizu S Pulse v FC Tokyo

2026-09-02 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shimizu S Pulse (Local)

Prediction 31.45%3.18fair odd
EV -5.64%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%31.45%31.45%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.952.953.0034.48%33.94%33.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Tokyo (Visit)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV -6.81%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -5.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.84%40.00%40.00%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.302.302.3343.86%43.42%43.48%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd
EV -7.21%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.55%28.55%28.55%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.203.203.2531.75%31.22%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Shimizu S Pulse (Local): 31.45%; FC Tokyo (Visit): 40.00%; Draw: 28.55%. For Shimizu S Pulse (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.00, with an expected value of -5.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -6.81%E -2.92%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -6.81%E -2.92%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 10:05
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.00%EV -7.21%E -3.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.00%EV -7.21%E -3.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.21%E -2.22%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 10:05
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.01%E -3.48%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.64%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -8.81%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.07%E -3.20%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -8.81%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.07%E -3.20%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -8.81%E -3.86%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.07%E -3.20%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 30.54%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.79%8.1%2026-08-28 13:00