Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mito HollyHock v Kashima Antlers

Inicio: 2026-09-02 10:00 UTC

Final: Mito HollyHock 4–2 Kashima Antlers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Predicción 19.63%5.09momio equitativo
EV +0.105%
Ventaja +0.021%
Kelly +0.026%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.39%19.69%19.71%21.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.614.505.1023.81%21.69%22.22%19.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kashima Antlers (Visitante)

Predicción 54.92%1.82momio equitativo
EV -2.25%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -2.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.61%54.79%54.88%56.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.591.701.701.7862.89%58.81%58.82%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.45%3.93momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.588%
Kelly -0.795%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.84

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.32%25.52%25.41%27.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.563.503.8429.41%28.05%28.57%26.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mito HollyHock (Local): 19.63%; Kashima Antlers (Visitante): 54.92%; Empate: 25.45%. Para Mito HollyHock (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.09. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.105%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.72%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.83%EV -6.09%E -3.56%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.72%EV +0.105%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.83%EV -6.09%E -3.56%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 09:55
1xBet🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.86%EV -0.877%E -0.174%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.19%E -4.25%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.80%EV -2.26%E -0.588%K -0.795%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 09:55
Pinnacle🎯5.04I 19.84%NM 19.14%EV -1.07%E -0.213%K -0.266%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -4.99%E -2.89%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.12%EV -2.26%E -0.588%K -0.795%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-02 09:55
BetAnything🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -1.86%E -0.372%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.80%EV -6.09%E -3.56%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -3.28%E -0.862%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 09:55
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -1.86%E -0.372%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -1.86%E -0.372%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -11.03%E -6.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -3.82%E -0.780%K -0.980%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.74%E -4.61%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.37%EV -6.33%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -5.78%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.37%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 09:10
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.78%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -7.19%E -4.25%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 08:19
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.78%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.95%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:49
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -5.78%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.61%EV -6.09%E -3.56%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 08:50
BetMGM🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -5.78%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.90%EV -7.19%E -4.25%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-02 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -6.77%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 09:00
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 09:50
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 09:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -6.77%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.64%E -3.91%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 09:50
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.76%EV -8.73%E -1.88%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.71%EV -7.74%E -4.61%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:00
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -9.71%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.81%EV -8.84%E -5.32%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.41%EV -8.88%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 09:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -9.71%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%EV -8.29%E -4.96%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 09:45
NordicBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -9.71%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.84%EV -9.39%E -5.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 09:00
Unibet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -9.71%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 55.95%EV -12.68%E -7.98%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 09:35
Coolbet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -2.25%E -1.26%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-02 08:50
Svenska Spel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -2.80%E -1.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -2.80%E -1.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 09:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -3.89%E -2.23%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 09:15
BetRivers🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -3.89%E -2.23%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 09:15
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%EV -6.09%E -3.56%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 08:50
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -8.29%E -4.96%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 08:19
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.40%EV -9.39%E -5.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 09:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.40%EV -9.39%E -5.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 09:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.40%EV -9.39%E -5.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 09:14
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.40%EV -9.39%E -5.69%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 09:15
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -11.67%E -2.59%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -11.03%E -6.81%K -17.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-02 09:55
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:10
Casumo🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:15
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:15
Grosvenor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:10
betPARX🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 09:15
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -8.84%E -5.32%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -5.54%E -3.22%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -12.18%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -5.54%E -3.22%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -12.18%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 09:15
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -13.64%E -3.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -5.54%E -3.22%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -12.18%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 09:15
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.55%EV -15.01%E -3.47%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.28%EV -8.29%E -4.96%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -15.60%E -3.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.62%EV -9.93%E -6.06%K -15.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.54%EV -7.09%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-02 09:00
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.55%EV -16.58%E -3.90%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.64%EV -4.44%E -2.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-02 08:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -17.56%E -4.18%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -5.54%E -3.22%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 08:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.29%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-09-02 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90%0.4%2026-09-02 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.90%0.4%2026-09-02 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-09-02 09:55
Smarkets◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.62%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.39%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98%1.3%2026-09-02 09:55
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.38%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%3.1%2026-09-02 09:45