The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v Shimizu S Pulse

2026-09-06 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 45.45%2.20fair odd
EV -6.83%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -6.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%45.45%45.45%45.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.022.022.0550.00%49.44%49.50%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visit)

Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd
EV -7.28%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.62%27.68%27.68%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.313.303.3530.30%30.17%30.30%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.87%3.72fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.64%26.87%26.87%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.453.453.5029.41%29.02%28.99%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 45.45%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visit): 27.68%; Draw: 26.87%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -5.94%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.83%E -3.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.83%E -3.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 10:05
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -7.28%E -3.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -7.28%E -3.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 10:05
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -8.19%E -4.06%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.10%E -4.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-01 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.10%E -4.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-01 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.10%E -4.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -8.67%E -2.63%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-01 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 38.52%1.27I 78.74%NM 39.43%2.27I 44.05%NM 22.06%99.7%2026-09-01 13:55