Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale v Shimizu S Pulse

Inicio: 2026-09-06 10:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 3–1 Shimizu S Pulse

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Predicción 51.46%1.94momio equitativo
EV -3.25%
Ventaja -1.73%
Kelly -3.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.77%51.53%51.49%53.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.691.791.791.8859.17%56.00%55.87%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shimizu S Pulse (Visitante)

Predicción 22.50%4.44momio equitativo
EV +2.83%
Ventaja +0.620%
Kelly +0.793%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.78%22.56%22.53%23.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.074.104.5726.67%24.58%24.39%21.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.04%3.84momio equitativo
EV +0.236%
Ventaja +0.061%
Kelly +0.083%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.80%25.91%25.98%27.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.573.603.8530.30%28.01%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 51.46%; Shimizu S Pulse (Visitante): 22.50%; Empate: 26.04%. Para Shimizu S Pulse (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.44. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.57, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.83%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.17%EV -6.34%E -3.48%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.78%EV +2.83%E +0.620%K +0.793%G +0.022%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.05%EV -8.62%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.36%EV -3.25%E -1.73%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.04%EV -1.44%E -0.330%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.60%EV -5.49%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.49%EV -4.28%E -2.30%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -3.24%E -0.754%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 09:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.49%EV -4.28%E -2.30%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -3.24%E -0.754%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 09:55
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.33%EV -5.82%E -3.18%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV +0.236%E +0.061%K +0.083%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 09:55
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -3.25%E -1.73%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 09:45
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -3.76%E -2.01%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.37%E -0.631%K -0.861%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 09:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.37%E -0.631%K -0.861%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 09:05
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 09:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -11.48%E -6.68%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -5.49%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 09:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -6.34%E -3.48%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.62%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.33%EV -7.83%E -2.21%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 09:55
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -6.62%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 09:25
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -5.82%E -3.18%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 09:55
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.92%EV -6.34%E -3.48%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 09:44
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.92%EV -6.34%E -3.48%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 09:55
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.49%EV -9.42%E -5.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.49%EV -9.42%E -5.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 09:05
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:04
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:05
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:05
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -3.67%E -0.992%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 09:05
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.28%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -10.18%E -2.95%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 09:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.74%EV -10.97%E -6.34%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.74%EV -10.97%E -6.34%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 09:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.74%EV -10.97%E -6.34%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 09:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.77%EV -13.03%E -7.71%K -18.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -7.74%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 09:35
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.82%E -3.18%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 09:00
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -5.82%E -3.18%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 08:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.84%EV -9.42%E -5.35%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 09:25
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:35
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:35
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -9.99%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.46%EV -10.45%E -6.01%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -12.24%E -3.14%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 09:25
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -13.37%E -3.47%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -4.97%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 09:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -14.49%E -3.81%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.27%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -14.49%E -3.81%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.88%E -2.54%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 09:00
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.23%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -14.49%E -3.81%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.08%E -4.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 09:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:00
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.48%E -3.38%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 09:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.46%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-09-06 09:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.3%2026-09-06 09:55
Matchbook1.90I 52.63%NM 51.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.43%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.3%2026-09-06 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.76%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.88%1.7%2026-09-06 09:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 51.76%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.88%1.7%2026-09-06 09:45
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.90%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.81%2.0%2026-09-06 09:45