Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale v JEF United Chiba

Inicio: 2026-08-29 10:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 4–2 JEF United Chiba

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Predicción 61.32%1.63momio equitativo
EV -4.34%
Ventaja -2.78%
Kelly -7.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.63%61.27%61.36%63.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.521.531.5669.44%65.66%65.36%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

JEF United Chiba (Visitante)

Predicción 17.26%5.79momio equitativo
EV +0.271%
Ventaja +0.047%
Kelly +0.056%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.14%17.30%17.22%19.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.155.005.8120.83%19.42%20.00%17.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.42%4.67momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -0.753%
Kelly -0.968%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.44%21.43%21.42%22.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.204.204.5125.00%23.79%23.81%22.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 61.32%; JEF United Chiba (Visitante): 17.26%; Empate: 21.42%. Para JEF United Chiba (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.79. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.81, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.271%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.78%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.32%EV +0.271%E +0.047%K +0.056%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.90%EV -11.32%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 09:50
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.26%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -0.764%E -0.133%K -0.161%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -3.61%E -0.802%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 09:16
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.66%EV -9.24%E -6.25%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -1.63%E -0.285%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -5.75%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 09:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.43%EV -11.08%E -7.64%K -24.63%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV -1.63%E -0.285%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -3.61%E -0.802%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 09:46
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.71%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.95%EV -1.97%E -0.347%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.34%EV -3.40%E -0.753%K -0.968%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 09:55
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.70%EV -7.40%E -4.90%K -14.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -3.35%E -0.599%K -0.729%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -7.89%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 09:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.04%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -5.75%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 09:46
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.04%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -5.75%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 09:46
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.64%EV -5.56%E -3.61%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.26%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV -3.61%E -0.802%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.51%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -6.82%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 09:46
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.04%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 09:50
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.51%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -8.97%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 09:50
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 09:15
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.67%EV -8.63%E -5.79%K -17.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -5.08%E -0.923%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -8.97%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -7.40%E -4.90%K -14.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -6.80%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.96%EV -4.68%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 09:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.64%EV -9.24%E -6.25%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -6.80%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.47%EV -8.97%E -2.11%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 09:47
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.81%EV -10.47%E -7.17%K -22.76%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.71%EV -6.80%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-29 09:46
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -9.39%E -1.79%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -7.25%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 09:10
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -9.39%E -1.79%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.60%EV -7.89%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 09:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.55%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -9.39%E -1.79%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 09:15
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.75%EV -5.56%E -3.61%K -10.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -10.26%E -1.97%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.75%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 09:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.32%EV -8.63%E -5.79%K -17.61%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -11.98%E -2.35%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -5.75%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 09:46
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 09:46
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 09:46
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.18%E -4.04%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 09:46
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-29 09:49
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -9.86%E -6.71%K -20.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 09:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -9.86%E -6.71%K -20.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 09:50
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -11.70%E -8.12%K -26.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -13.71%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.18%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -15.43%E -3.15%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.18%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -15.43%E -3.15%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.18%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -15.43%E -3.15%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:10
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.18%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -15.43%E -3.15%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:05
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.63%EV -4.34%E -2.78%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -4.95%E -3.19%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -4.95%E -3.19%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.79%EV -4.95%E -3.19%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -12.18%E -2.97%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 09:10
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 09:10
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.02%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -17.16%E -3.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-29 09:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.09%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.3%2026-08-29 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.09%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.3%2026-08-29 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.38%1.7%2026-08-29 09:55
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.38%1.7%2026-08-29 09:55
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-08-29 09:55
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.21%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.55%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-08-29 09:55