Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kashima Antlers v Avispa Fukuoka

Inicio: 2026-08-22 09:00 UTC

Final: Kashima Antlers 3–2 Avispa Fukuoka

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kashima Antlers (Local)

Predicción 49.04%2.04momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -1.98%
Kelly -4.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.03%49.44%48.94%53.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.731.841.851.9657.80%54.36%54.05%51.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Avispa Fukuoka (Visitante)

Predicción 21.95%4.56momio equitativo
EV +9.74%
Ventaja +1.95%
Kelly +2.43%
Crecimiento +0.237%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.50%21.65%21.99%22.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.394.405.0025.64%22.76%22.73%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.01%3.45momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.403%
Kelly -0.571%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.86%28.91%29.07%30.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.213.203.4033.33%31.11%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Kashima Antlers (Local): 49.04%; Avispa Fukuoka (Visitante): 21.95%; Empate: 29.01%. Para Avispa Fukuoka (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.56. 19 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.74%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -15.15%E -8.76%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +9.74%E +1.95%K +2.43%G +0.237%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 16:14
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -15.15%E -8.76%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +9.74%E +1.95%K +2.43%G +0.237%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -15.15%E -8.76%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +9.74%E +1.95%K +2.43%G +0.237%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -15.15%E -8.76%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV +9.74%E +1.95%K +2.43%G +0.237%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 16:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -12.70%E -7.14%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -12.70%E -7.14%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -12.70%E -7.14%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:09
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -12.70%E -7.14%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 08:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.42%EV -13.68%E -7.77%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV +3.15%E +0.671%K +0.852%G +0.027%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -4.27%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:09
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.31%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.38%EV +2.49%E +0.534%K +0.679%G +0.017%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.31%EV -8.91%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 08:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.26%EV -14.66%E -8.43%K -19.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV +0.957%E +0.208%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.72%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 08:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.26%EV -14.66%E -8.43%K -19.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV +0.957%E +0.208%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.72%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 08:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.26%EV -14.66%E -8.43%K -19.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV +0.957%E +0.208%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.72%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 08:09
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.24%EV -3.87%E -1.98%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.78%EV -2.77%E -0.626%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.98%EV -3.40%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-22 08:45
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.24%EV -6.82%E -3.59%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -1.37%E -0.403%K -0.571%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 08:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.98%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.48%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 08:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.98%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.48%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 08:35
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.98%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.48%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 08:35
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 08:43
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -10.25%E -5.60%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -3.43%E -0.780%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 08:35
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -5.63%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 08:45
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -1.37%E -0.403%K -0.571%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 08:49
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.72%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 08:55
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 08:24
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.89%EV -9.76%E -5.30%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -5.72%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 08:24
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -8.29%E -4.43%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 08:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -8.29%E -4.43%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 08:50
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.29%E -4.43%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.82%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.97%E -4.32%K -6.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 08:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.35%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -8.92%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 08:54
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -5.84%E -3.04%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -8.92%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 08:54
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 08:24
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.13%EV -5.84%E -3.04%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -8.62%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 08:35
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%EV -6.82%E -3.59%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.78%EV -8.78%E -4.72%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.08%EV -9.49%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 08:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.69%EV -10.74%E -5.90%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 08:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -10.25%E -5.60%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -10.02%E -2.44%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 08:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.60%EV -7.80%E -4.15%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.17%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 08:50
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 08:24
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 08:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 08:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 08:24
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -12.21%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -12.97%E -4.32%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 08:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -9.76%E -5.30%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -14.41%E -3.69%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -8.62%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 08:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-08-22 08:55
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.43%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-08-22 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.22%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-08-22 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.22%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-08-22 08:55
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.34%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.31%1.8%2026-08-22 08:50
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.99%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-08-22 08:55