Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka v Fagiano Okayama

2026-08-08 10:00 UTC — J League

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cerezo Osaka (Local)

Prediction 50.64%1.97fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%50.49%50.71%50.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.851.9057.80%54.59%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 24.01%4.16fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%24.03%23.96%25.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.763.804.0029.41%26.60%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%25.49%25.32%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.523.7730.77%28.19%28.37%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 50.64%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 24.01%; Draw: 25.34%. For Cerezo Osaka (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.90, with an expected value of -3.78%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.32%EV -3.78%E -1.99%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.33%EV -5.63%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.36%EV -4.45%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 11:42
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -4.79%E -2.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.95%E -0.988%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -4.96%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 11:10
Pinnacle1.86I 53.76%NM 50.78%EV -5.80%E -3.12%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.97%EV -5.39%E -1.37%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.25%EV -5.21%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 12:00
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.35%E -1.63%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 11:10
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -7.79%E -2.03%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -6.73%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 10:58
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.75%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:45
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.75%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:45
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.75%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:44
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.31%E -3.41%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.75%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.29%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:49
Bet Right1.84I 54.35%NM 49.78%EV -6.82%E -3.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.95%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -10.03%E -2.82%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 11:14
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.32%E -4.00%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -6.35%E -1.63%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 11:09
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 48.29%EV -7.83%E -4.30%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -17.16%E -4.97%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -15.10%E -4.51%K -6.42%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-01 10:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.84%E -4.91%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.95%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-01 11:14
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.00%EV -8.84%E -4.91%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.41%EV -18.36%E -5.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -17.63%E -5.42%K -7.84%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-01 10:59
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -11.37%E -6.50%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -15.96%E -4.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -16.36%E -4.96%K -7.11%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-01 11:14
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.09%EV -12.39%E -7.16%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.20%EV -14.04%E -3.92%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 25.71%EV -14.59%E -4.33%K -6.16%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-01 10:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.