Language:English
Cerezo Osaka v Fagiano Okayama
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cerezo Osaka (Local)
Prediction 44.80%2.23fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.44%45.18%44.84%49.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.062.052.1855.56%48.51%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fagiano Okayama (Visit)
Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV -0.334%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.128%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.82%27.46%27.67%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.353.6032.26%29.99%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.51%3.64fair odd
EV -0.964%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.371%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%27.36%27.49%28.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.323.6031.25%29.84%30.12%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cerezo Osaka (Local): 44.80%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 27.69%; Draw: 27.51%. For Fagiano Okayama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.334%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.99%EV -2.33%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.80%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.72%EV -3.67%E -1.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.28%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.01%EV -2.06%E -0.580%K -0.806%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%EV -4.12%E -1.92%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%EV -4.12%E -1.92%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.61%EV -4.57%E -2.14%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -1.72%E -0.484%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.62%EV -8.67%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -5.01%E -2.36%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.92%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 09:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 09:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 09:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 09:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -5.91%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -6.81%E -3.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 09:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -7.25%E -3.50%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -6.42%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -5.92%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -3.10%E -0.886%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.964%E -0.268%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 09:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.20%EV -10.85%E -3.37%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 09:32 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-08 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-08 09:06 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -8.15%E -3.98%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.18%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 09:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 09:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 09:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-08 09:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -10.39%E -5.20%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 09:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.14%EV -10.84%E -5.45%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-08 09:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -19.35%E -10.75%K -24.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -0.334%E -0.093%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-05 15:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.95% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72% | 0.2% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61% | 0.6% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.57% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.70% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 09:55 |
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